- What: NFL Regular Season Game
- When: Sunday, October 13th
- Who: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Time: 1:05 p.m. PST
- Where: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas, NV)
Two historic franchises face off in Las Vegas when the Raiders host the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are currently the favorites, and for good reason, despite losing their last two games. Once again, they find themselves in a familiar position, heavily reliant on their robust defense for early success.
Their 11th ranking in defensive DVOA is a clear indicator of their outstanding performance. They have one of the best defensive lines in football, capable of shutting down the run and pressuring the quarterback to support an average secondary.
Their main issue lies in creating enough offense to complement their exceptional defense.
GAMEDAY IN VEGAS‼️ @_TJWatt | #HereWeGo pic.twitter.com/yxcbg5qyF0
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) October 13, 2024
Justin Fields has made great strides in the past few weeks, especially in his passing game. His skill in extending plays and making throws on the move will be vital against a Raiders defense that has had difficulty containing mobile quarterbacks.
Although Fields has been a threat, the team ranks in the bottom ten in the league in terms of yards and points scored per game, which could potentially result in Russell Wilson taking over the position as early as this week.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders’ offensive line has struggled, ranking 28th through the first five games. They have allowed 13 sacks, which is the second-worst in the league.
This has made life difficult for Gardner Minshew, who is ranked 31st in EPA per play among the 38 quarterbacks who have taken at least 20 snaps. Aidan O’Connell, his backup, has also faced challenges and is ranked 27th.
Surprisingly, the team has been marginally better through the air, ranking last in rushing DVOA. O’Connell offers a glimmer of hope after being sacked just twice and throwing just one interception with one touchdown on 61.9% passing in two appearances.
¡Nos volvemos a encontrar en Las Vegas!????☠️#RaiderNation | #PITvsLV pic.twitter.com/P00GOgw8Hi
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) October 13, 2024
O’Connell will get the start this week. He has been much better than Minshew at avoiding sacks and has a better chance at limiting turnovers.
This means the team should avoid donating field position to Pittsburgh and allow its struggling offense — now down Davante Adams and perhaps Jakobi Meyers, who is questionable — to run plenty of plays.
Steelers-Raiders Best Bet
I expect this game to be close, as is often the case with Steelers-Raiders matchups. The spread is at 3 points, a key number, so I’ll avoid that.
The Raiders have a strong home-field advantage at Allegiant Stadium, and that shouldn’t be overlooked. Despite missing Davante Adams, their offense has displayed moments of creativity that could help keep the game tight.
However, the total is worth targeting. It’s set at 36.5 points, which feels low, but considering these defensive-minded head coaches, it makes sense.
I’m going to be contrarian with this play and say Over 36.5 points is the best bet in this one, I think we get to 38 to 40 points based off of a defensive TD by one of the teams.
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Tony Reyes is a sports betting analyst and reporter for Dice City Sports. You can follow him on X @TonyParlay.
