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Can UNLV start the season with an upset win over Houston?

© Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
  • What: NCAA Football Regular Season Game
  • When: Saturday, August 31
  • Who:  UNLV Rebels vs. Houston Cougars
  • Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
  • Where: TDECU Stadium (Houston, TX)

In Week 1, a compelling matchup awaits in Houston as the Cougars take on the UNLV Rebels on Saturday night.

UNLV, fresh off a championship game appearance, aims to clinch the Mountain West title, while Houston seeks a strong start following a 4-8 season and a coaching change.

UNLV Rebels

Year 2 of the Barry Odom era at UNLV is showing promise following last season’s trip to the Mountain West Championship. Despite quarterback Jayden Maiava’s departure to USC, the Rebels have kept offensive coordinator Brennan Marion and his dynamic Go-Go offense.

The Go-Go offense is an explosive, fast-paced system featuring extensive pre-snap motion, RPOs, and zone-read options.

This high-powered offense helped UNLV average 34.4 points per game in 2023 and presents a significant challenge for opposing defenses.

With Maiava moving on, Marion faces the task of selecting a new starting quarterback from three contenders: senior Cameron Friel, Campbell transfer Hajj-Malik Williams, and Holy Cross transfer Matthew Sluka.

Each brings their own set of skills and areas for improvement, but they will all benefit from targeting explosive wide receiver Ricky White, who amassed 1,483 receiving yards and eight touchdowns last season.

Although the Rebels’ defense may not match the prowess of their offense, it remains a solid unit.

Linebacker Jackson Woodard, who led the team with 116 total tackles, is returning alongside 2023 second-team all-Mountain West performers defensive end Jalen Dixon and defensive back Cameron Oliver, who recorded five interceptions during the 2023 season.

UNLV has also acquired safety Jalen Catalon as a transfer from Arkansas, adding further depth to the defensive lineup.

Houston Cougars

Houston faces numerous uncertainties heading into this game. However, it also marks the inaugural season under the leadership of new head coach Willie Fritz.

With Fritz’s track record as a successful coach, there’s a sense of hope that he can navigate the transition and lead the Cougars to success.

Quarterback Donovan Smith remains a key figure for the team amidst significant player departures via the transfer portal.

Last season, Smith delivered impressive stats, and with Houston’s need to replace four offensive line starters, there’s a sense of inspiration in the team’s resilience and Smith’s potential to adapt in the upcoming season.

Complicating matters, the departure of top receiver Sam Brown, who amassed 815 yards and three touchdowns, and another prominent receiver, Matthew Golden, further disrupts the team’s offensive dynamics.

The defensive lineup also suffered losses to the transfer portal, with key players such as Jamaree Caldwell, Treylin Payne, and Isaiah Hamilton moving to other programs.

Although the team has acquired solid defensive transfers and retains some starters, addressing defensive challenges presents a significant task for Houston, especially considering the team’s previous struggles, allowing an average of 31.5 points per game last year.

Rebels-Cougars Best Bet

I believe that UNLV is in a stronger position as a program than Houston, and I anticipate this advantage will be evident on the field.

I have confidence in the Rebels’ coaching staff to devise a solid game plan for whichever quarterback starts. I expect UNLV to advance the ball against an untested Cougars defense effectively.

My prediction is that the Rebels, with their strong position, will cover the spread on the road in their season opener, giving fans a reason to be hopeful.

Take the 3.5 points for UNLV in this one.

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Tony Reyes is a sports betting analyst and reporter for Dice City Sports. You can follow him on X @TonyParlay.

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