- What: NFL Regular Season Game
- When: November 21, 2024
- Who: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
- Time: 5:15 p.m. PST
- Where: Huntington Bank Field (Cleveland, OH)
The upcoming clash between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns is shaping up to be a classic AFC North showdown, but the narrative surrounding this game is more intriguing than the odds suggest.
With the Steelers favored by 3.5 points, many might be quick to dismiss the Browns, especially given their dismal 2-8 record.
However, there are compelling reasons to believe that Cleveland can keep this game close, particularly when you look at the Steelers’ conservative offensive approach and quarterback Russell Wilson’s struggles in critical situations.
Pittsburgh Steelers
First, let’s discuss the Steelers’ offense under Wilson. While he’s been a veteran presence, his play-calling has been anything but aggressive. Pittsburgh has been operating an average passing offense.
This predictability has made it easier for opposing defenses to prepare, and it’s no secret that the Browns have a solid defensive unit that can capitalize on such tendencies.
The Steelers have been winning games, but they’ve often done so in tight margins, relying heavily on their defense and special teams rather than an explosive offense.
GAMEDAY IN THE LAND‼️ #HereWeGo @_TJWatt | @nickherbig_ pic.twitter.com/6QUYnbtW8e
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) November 21, 2024
Now, let’s dive into Wilson’s red zone woes. This season, he’s completed just 29% of his pass attempts inside the 20-yard line, marking the lowest completion percentage of his career.
This is a significant red flag, especially when you consider that the Browns’ defense has been known to tighten up in the red zone. Wilson’s tendency to avoid tight windows only heightens the issue, as he’s been hesitant to take risks when the field shrinks.
If the Steelers find themselves in scoring positions, they may struggle to convert those opportunities into touchdowns, which could keep the game within reach for the Browns.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns have shown flashes of offensive capability, particularly with Jameis Winston at the helm. While Winston has had his ups and downs, he’s capable of putting points on the board, especially when he’s given time to throw.
The return of key offensive linemen has improved Cleveland’s protection, allowing Winston to operate more effectively.
If the Browns can establish a run game with Nick Chubb and Jerome Ford, it could open up play-action opportunities that exploit the Steelers’ defense.
a rivalry that runs deep pic.twitter.com/ZbOaupE8Jd
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) November 21, 2024
Another factor to consider is the weather. Both teams may lean heavily on their ground games with potential rain and snow in the forecast.
This could play into the Browns’ hands, as they have a strong rushing attack that can grind out yards and control the clock.
If the weather conditions are as challenging as predicted, it could limit the Steelers’ ability to stretch the field, further playing into the Browns’ strategy.
Steelers-Browns Best Bet
Lastly, let’s not forget the historical context. The Steelers have struggled to cover the spread as favorites, particularly when the line is more than a field goal.
Under Mike Tomlin, they’ve been less effective in these situations, and the Browns have a solid track record of keeping games close against division rivals.
Betting on the underdog in AFC North matchups has yielded positive returns for several seasons, and this game could be no different.
While the Steelers may be riding high on a five-game winning streak, the combination of their conservative offensive play, Wilson’s red zone struggles, and the potential for adverse weather conditions makes it likely for the Browns to keep this game within the spread.
Betting on the Browns to cover the 3.5 points is the savvy move, especially if they can capitalize on the Steelers’ predictability and exploit their weaknesses. This game is set to be a gritty, hard-fought battle, and the Browns have the tools to make it competitive.
The Browns +3.5 points at -110 odds at BetMGM is the best bet in this one.
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Tony Reyes is a sports betting analyst and reporter for Dice City Sports. You can follow him on X @TonyParlay.
