- What: NFL Regular Season Game
- When: Monday, September 23
- Who: Washington Commanders vs Cincinnati Bengals
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati, OH)
When the Bengals return home, they will be determined to secure their first win of the year against a struggling Washington Commanders defense under head coach Dan Quinn.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders have struggled, ranking last in EPA allowed per dropback and 31st in opponents’ success rate per pass. They have witnessed opposing quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones achieve a collective 127.6 passer rating in the first two games, throwing for a combined six touchdowns.
Adding to their woes, Quinn’s defense heavily relies on blitzing, with one of the highest rates of bringing extra pass rushers in the opening weeks of 2024.
Jayden Daniels has been off to an impressive start in his career, racking up 132 rushing yards, which is the most by a quarterback in the first two games of a season in the Super Bowl era.
just two @LSUfootball Heisman winners catching up pic.twitter.com/DBu7Sw8PPS
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) September 23, 2024
However, Washington’s high scoring percentage on drives (58.8%) is somewhat inflated due to their matchup against a weak Giants defense last week.
Running back Brian Robinson has had success against the Giants in the past, with four of his seven career 100-scrimmage yard games coming against them.
In Week 1, Washington gained 299 yards, averaging 5.3 yards per play, and only converted 25% of their third downs, while possessing the ball for just over 26 minutes.
I anticipate that Washington’s offensive output will be more in line with their performance against the Bengals’ defense, rather than being swayed by their flawless scoring record on all seven possessions last week.
Cincinnati Bengals
Although Joe Burrow’s 2024 stats were affected by a disappointing performance in Week 1, he has a history of excelling against blitz-heavy defenses.
Burrow and his teammates seem to be facing some challenges early in the season. A game against the Washington Commanders could allow them to bounce back, especially considering that Washington has struggled defensively, allowing six passing touchdowns in their first two games.
Preparation.
Pregame Conditioning | @GreatClips pic.twitter.com/Y5YLzbQSVu
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) September 23, 2024
With Cincinnati heavily relying on the passing game, Burrow and his receivers will likely look to exploit this matchup. Keep an eye on Ja’Marr Chase, who could be extra motivated to perform well after a costly penalty in their previous game.
Burrow is undoubtedly the most formidable quarterback Washington will face this season. Not only is he eager for a win, but his receiving corps will be at full strength in Week 3.
Receiver Tee Higgins, who has scored 24 touchdowns in his four years with the franchise, is set to make his 2024 debut on Monday night, providing Burrow with one of his preferred targets, especially in the red zone.
Commanders-Bengals Best Bet
The Bengals have had another slow start to the season with a 0-2 record, which has been a recurring trend in recent years. There are rumors circulating about Joe Burrow’s wrist injury being more serious than he’s indicating, adding pressure to the quarterback.
The Bengals should be able to win this one at home, however the spread has moved to 7.5 points, which feels like too many points. I don’t like the fact that it moved past a touchdown. I could easily see this game being a 30-23 shootout type game.
I’ll take the Commanders to cover in this Monday night showdown.
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Tony Reyes is a sports betting analyst and reporter for Dice City Sports. You can follow him on X @TonyParlay.
