- What: WNBA Regular Season Game
- When: Sunday, September 1st
- Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Footprint Arena (Phoenix, AZ)
The Las Vegas Aces will travel to Phoenix to face the Mercury after their dominant home win against the Atlanta Dream.
Assuming no unexpected late-season slumps, the Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury will likely make it to the postseason.
However, the remaining few weeks of the regular season will determine their seeding.
Can A’ja Wilson and the Aces hit their peak at the right moment and position themselves for a rare three-peat?
Las Vegas Aces
The Las Vegas Aces, who won back-to-back WNBA Finals, have been a relatively disappointing team this season.
They have a 19-12 record, which places them second in the Western Conference and fourth overall in the WNBA.
In the game against Atlanta, Vegas was well-rested at home, taking advantage of the Dream’s tiring road trip.
Now, the Aces face the challenge of playing on the road against a Phoenix team that has been home all week and hasn’t played since Wednesday.
If Vegas can secure a win here, it will show their resilience and potential as a formidable playoff contender.
Nevertheless, they need to demonstrate consistent quality performances before the playoffs begin rather than relying on last-minute turnarounds.
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⌚️ 1:00PM PT
???? SSSEN#ALLINLV pic.twitter.com/q86uRYKEA4— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) September 1, 2024
A’ja Wilson leads the Las Vegas team, which tops the WNBA in points per game (86.9) and pace (80.3) and ranks second in offensive rating (107.7).
Wilson is averaging a league-leading 27 points per game, making her a dominant force that opponents struggle to contain. However, the team’s offensive prowess is not solely dependent on Wilson.
Kelsey Plum (17.6 ppg) and Jackie Young (17.1 ppg) both rank in the Top 20 in scoring and make an impact beyond the arc, combining for 4.8 three-pointers per game.
This should help against the Phoenix Mercury, who allow the most three-pointers per game in the league (8.9).
Phoenix Mercury
The Phoenix Mercury’s defensive performance has been inconsistent this season. They currently allow the fourth-most points per game in the WNBA (84.4) and rank ninth in defensive rating (106.7).
The Mercury, led by Kahleah Copper, scores 82.7 points per game. Copper is just behind Wilson in points per game with 22.3, and she’s not shouldering the offensive load alone.
Brittney Griner has been a dominant presence inside, averaging 18.1 points per game, while Diana Taurasi continues to excel, contributing 15.6 points per game.
the last time to see seven gold medalists face off in the valley! let's make it a full house today!
????️ https://t.co/LUdAdXMROj#ValleyTogether pic.twitter.com/z57QLrLyYt
— Phoenix Mercury (@PhoenixMercury) September 1, 2024
Phoenix has lost three of its last four games, showing a significant decline in performance since the Olympic break.
On the other hand, Vegas is allowing the sixth-most points per game in the league (82.8) and has struggled defending the perimeter.
The Aces give up the third-most three-pointers per game (8.2) and have the second-highest opponent 3-point percentage (36.4%).
Aces-Mercury Best Bet
The Aces are favored in this one, and the spread is 4.5 points. While I believe the Aces will come out on top in this one, the spread or the moneyline is not the best bet.
I’d target the total in this matchup. The total is set at 170 points, and due to both teams’ defensive struggles, the over feels like it’s sure to hit.
I’d bet Over 170 points in this matchup.
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Tony Reyes is a sports betting analyst and reporter for Dice City Sports. You can follow him on X @TonyParlay.
