- What: WNBA Regular Season Game
- When: Sunday, July 14
- Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Entertainment and Sports Arena (Washington DC)
The high-scoring Las Vegas Aces conclude their three-game road trip this afternoon with their third matchup of the season against the Washington Mystics.
Given Washington’s recent struggles with perimeter defense, my predictions for this non-conference WNBA game foresee the Aces capitalizing on the Mystics’ defensive vulnerabilities.
Las Vegas Aces
The Aces’ offense is on fire; they play at the fastest pace in the WNBA and have scored 84+ points in nine consecutive games.
A’ja Wilson has rediscovered her scoring prowess, and Chelsea Gray’s much-anticipated return has provided Vegas with an additional playmaker, benefiting the entire offense.
In contrast, Washington has faced numerous injuries this season, particularly affecting their backcourt.
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???? Washington, D.C.
⌚️ 12:00PM PT
???? @CBSSportsNet // SSSEN#ALLINLV pic.twitter.com/mXBr2cXX7N— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) July 14, 2024
The loss of Brittney Sykes and Karlie Samuelson has hurt the Mystics’ scoring, but it has also led to significant struggles in their perimeter defense, especially in the last five games.
The Mystics’ perimeter defense has been porous, allowing guards to attempt the most 3-pointers per game (16) with an eighth-best 38% shooting accuracy from downtown.
Additionally, guards shoot 48% from the field against Washington’s defense.
Washington Mystics
The Mystics started the season with 12 consecutive losses but have since turned things around, going 6-5, including wins over playoff contenders Chicago and Atlanta.
This resurgence has occurred despite missing key players for much of the season. Guard Brittney Sykes, who was the team’s second-leading scorer last year (15.9 ppg), has only played in three games due to ankle and foot injuries.
Forward/center Shakira Austin, who averaged 10.0 points and 7.0 rebounds in 2023, has appeared in just six games this season because of a hip injury suffered midway through last season.
Additionally, future Hall of Famer Elena Delle Donne chose not to re-sign with the team during the offseason.
Ariel Atkins leads the Mystics in scoring this year, averaging 15.0 points per game along with 3.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.65 steals.
A sight to see will be how these two will facilitate on the floor.
This one is going to be a goodie! #OwnYourLegacy | @CapitalOne pic.twitter.com/8Ph2hfjPHU
— Washington Mystics (@WashMystics) July 14, 2024
Stefanie Dolson is also having a solid season. She is averaging 10.6 points, her highest since her second All-Star season in 2017.
Most of her production comes from beyond the arc, where she is hitting a WNBA-best 50 percent of her shots.
The Mystics rank 10th in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring 97.6 points per 100 possessions, and 8th in defensive efficiency, allowing 102.6 points per 100 possessions.
Over their last 11 games, their offense has improved to a 103.5 offensive efficiency rating (OER), while their defense has slightly improved to 101.8.
During this stretch, Washington is hitting 39.9 percent of its 3-pointers, which leads the WNBA.
Las Vegas won the first two meetings between the teams this year, defeating the Mystics in Washington on June 29, 88-77, and securing a 98-77 victory in Las Vegas on July 4.
Aces-Mystics Best Bet
The Las Vegas Aces are in great shape, showing strong performance and becoming favorites to win the title.
They dominated the Mystics by 21 points just 10 days ago, and another decisive victory wouldn’t be surprising.
However, it’s worth noting that the Aces have only covered the spread in 5 of their last 13 games as a double-digit favorite.
Dub in ATL ????@_ajawilson22: 33 PTS / 18 REB / 3 STL / 5 BLK@JackieYoung3: 19 PTS / 4 REB / 6 AST / 4 3PM / 46% FG@Kelseyplum10: 15 PTS / 7 AST / 5 REB / 2 STL#ALLINLV pic.twitter.com/y4Eei7bYYB
— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) July 13, 2024
On the other hand, the Mystics have covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 games and have an impressive 15-7-1 ATS record for the season.
Additionally, the Mystics have excelled as underdogs, covering the spread in nine of their last 12 games as double-digit underdogs.
Considering these factors, betting on the Mystics and taking the points seems intelligent. I’d take Washington +12.5 points on the spread.
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