- What: MLB Regular Season Game
- When: Sunday, July 14
- Who: Oakland Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, PA)
After breaking the Phillies’ three-game winning streak on Friday, the Athletics continued to show promise on Saturday despite ultimately losing.
They aim to finish the first half strong with a third win in five games against a young, inexperienced pitcher.
Oakland Athletics
Following Zack Wheeler’s back injury, Michael Mercado is set for long relief on Sunday, a week after losing his spot in the Phillies’ rotation.
Mercado is determined to bounce back from a rough start against the Braves as he faces an Athletics offense that is currently in good form alongside 22-year-old Joey Estes.
Can Mercado help secure a fifth Phillies win in six games and head into the All-Star break on a high note?
Roadtrip finale. pic.twitter.com/KWZX4igjtu
— Oakland A's (@Athletics) July 14, 2024
Orion Kerkering is expected to pitch before Mercado, who has emerged this season with a 1.71 ERA across 47 1/3 innings in Triple-A, excelling in strikeouts and limiting home runs.
Although walks were initially a concern, Mercado seemed to improve with just five walks over 15 2/3 innings in June before struggling again in the majors.
Walks have been Mercado’s main issue at the big-league level through his first two starts, although the three home runs he allowed to Atlanta might have been an outlier due to facing a hot offense.
The challenge is that the A’s are currently hitting well despite lacking consistency with a .275 average.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies’ offense, meanwhile, appears to be back on track with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber returning.
They rank 11th in wRC+ over the past week, with a solid strikeout and walk rates, although they’ve yet to recapture their peak power.
Estes has limited experience at this level, but his 67 innings over the past two seasons give us a clear picture of his pitching style.
Casual 4 RBI day for Casty pic.twitter.com/dr8fklr737
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) July 13, 2024
The right-hander notably avoids ground balls, perhaps more than any pitcher in the league. While he’s managed to keep walks to a minimum, his .261 Expected Batting Average (xBA) and .477
Expected Slugging (xSLG) indicate that hitters simply can’t resist swinging at his enticing pitches.
Estes relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, but with a .321 xBA on that pitch over the last two months, he has started to use it less frequently.
The pitch lacks velocity and is often left over the heart of the plate, rarely hitting the lower part of the zone. This is concerning given the Phillies’ high ranking in run value against fastballs.
Despite the A’s recent top-10 ranking in wRC+ over the past week, their power numbers remain average.
A’s-Phillies Best Bet
However, they excel at putting the ball in the air, and playing in Philadelphia’s hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park could amplify this strength.
Both offenses are well-suited to hitting fly balls and have the potential to turn those into home runs.
Citizens Bank Park ranks sixth in Park Factor for home runs over the past three seasons, making it a favorable environment for hitters.
Sure why not, we'll take a few more. Thanks, Bryce! pic.twitter.com/YwDmAochuO
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) July 13, 2024
With both pitchers prone to giving up fly balls, this matchup is risky for either arm.
Oakland’s struggles with making contact could complicate things, but Mercado is not yet adept enough to fully exploit this weakness even if Mercado pitches decently, Estes is likely to do enough to push the game total over.
I’d bet over 10 runs in this one.
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