- What: NBA Finals Game 4
- When: Friday, June 14
- Who: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks
- Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Where: American Airlines Center (Dallas)
Can the Dallas Mavericks defend their home court, prevent a Celtics sweep, and force the series back to Boston? Betting intel suggests a tight contest, with the Mavericks (-105) as slight home underdogs aiming to extend the series.
As the series nears its end, several strategic betting opportunities remain to be explored.
Best Bet: Dallas Mavericks Moneyline
Are the Mavs really facing a sweep?
It’s a distinct possibility, given Boston’s dominance in this series (and all season). However, Dallas showed enough promise in Game 3, even without Kristaps Porzingis, to justify backing them on the moneyline for Game 4.
Firstly, Dallas held their own inside. Without Boston’s 7’3″ unicorn protecting the paint, the Mavs outscored the Celtics 52-36 in the paint and won the rebound battle 43-36.
6.12.24 ????@ATT // #OneForDallas #MFFL pic.twitter.com/S9foHdVmVz
— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) June 13, 2024
While the Celtics shot well from beyond the arc (17-of-46), Dallas still limited them to 106 points overall. Jayson Tatum scored 31 points but needed 26 shots to get there.
Jrue Holiday (9 points; 4-of-9) and Derrick White (16 points; 4-of-10) were not overly damaging, though Jaylen Brown (30 points; 12-of-22) remained a tough matchup.
Entering Game 4, Brown is averaging 24.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game in this series, making him the favorite for NBA Finals MVP at -340 odds.
The absence of Porzingis was particularly felt when Boston needed easy baskets, especially late in the fourth quarter. They shot just 38.9% in the final period and were outscored by eight points.
Luka Doncic was +12 in his eight minutes of fourth-quarter action before fouling out. He finished +9 across 38 minutes, scoring 27 points on 11-of-27 shooting.
.@KendrickPerkins says Luka has hurt his stock in the NBA Finals ???? pic.twitter.com/VzC6YnkPbx
— First Take (@FirstTake) June 14, 2024
Given that this was the first time he fouled out of a playoff game, I’m optimistic about Luka’s impact over 40-plus minutes in Game 4.
Both Kyrie Irving (35 points on 13-of-28 shooting) and Dereck Lively (11 points; 13 rebounds) had their best games of the series with Porzingis sidelined, and that trend could continue into Game 4.
However, the biggest potential improvement for the Mavs could be reducing Tim Hardaway Jr.’s minutes.
Though he had appeared in only three games since the Conference Semifinals, Hardaway Jr. saw his second-most minutes of the postseason (19) in Game 3, finishing a team-worst -16 with zero points on 0-of-5 shooting.
The non-Hardaway minutes were much more effective for Dallas. I’d be surprised if he sees the floor in Game 4, which should benefit the Mavs on both ends.
NBA Finals Game 4 Best Bet
That said, the line is already moving in Boston’s favor. I’ll likely wait to see if Dallas shifts to plus odds, though the current -105 odds are still a worthwhile play.
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