- What: NBA Finals Game 4
- When: Friday, June 14
- Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Where: American Airlines Center (Dallas)
Facing elimination, Mavericks star Luka Doncic—the 2023-24 regular-season scoring champion—aims to bounce back against the Celtics in Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Friday (8:30 p.m. ET on ABC).
In Game 3, after sparking a fourth-quarter rally for Dallas, Doncic fouled out in regulation for the first time in his career.
Best Bet: Luka Doncic Points Prop
Doncic has yet to have a true scoring explosion in this series, and given the Celtics’ strong defense, it might not be feasible. However, in a season-ending game, he’s likely to ensure the Mavericks don’t go down without a fight.
One-on-one defense reduces opportunities for his role players, setting the stage for him to post impressive numbers. There’s no reason to hold back now. The Mavericks might not stand a chance if Doncic doesn’t score 40 or more.
Believing until the end. @ATT // #OneForDallas #MFFL pic.twitter.com/qaClfunFPN
— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) June 13, 2024
Luka Doncic Game 3 Performance
Some might argue that Luka Doncic registered more complaints than assists in Dallas’ heartbreaking Game 3 loss.
What’s undeniable is his disappointing performance, tallying as many shot attempts as points (27). Fouling out with 4:12 remaining was the final blow, marking the second time in this series he’s fallen short of his points prop.
Luka Doncic admits he let Dallas down in Game 3, telling his teammates: “My bad, you can’t do that — especially in the NBA Finals.”
Our interview on fouling out for the first time in the playoffs, needing another pain killing shot for Game 4 and trying to make history down 0-3: pic.twitter.com/kRSjL93IHy
— Malika Andrews (@malika_andrews) June 13, 2024
With the aging Al Horford logging more minutes on Wednesday, Doncic often settled for stepback 3-pointers, hitting just 1-of-7 from beyond the arc.
His defensive struggles, which hadn’t hurt the Mavericks before the NBA Finals, have been costly on this stage.
Over the past three series, Doncic has allowed the highest blow-by percentage on drives in the last decade (via Second Spectrum). The Celtics have capitalized on this 67.7% of the time.
NBA Finals Game 4 Best Prop Bet
In the first two games against Boston, Luka Doncic shot 48.5% on pull-up jumpers, attempting 16.5 per game. However, on Wednesday, his shooting efficiency in this area dropped by 21.3 percentage points.
Despite dealing with ankle and knee injuries throughout the playoffs, his shot selection in Game 3 was subpar. In desperation mode for Game 4, I expect him to improve significantly.
Doncic is the Mavericks’ offensive motor. He’s the focal point of the offense. I’d expect him to go all out in this game and easily exceed his point total of 32.5 that’s available at most sportsbooks.
I’d play it all the way up to 34.5 and even sprinkle on Luka to drop 40 points in this game.
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Tony Reyes is a sports betting analyst and reporter for Dice City Sports. You can follow him on X @TonyParlay.
