- What: MLB Regular Season Game
- When: Saturday, July 13
- Who: Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Petco Park (San Diego, CA)
The Atlanta Braves are starting to find their groove offensively, having won five of their last seven games as they head into Saturday’s matchup.
They pose a significant challenge for the San Diego Padres, who are currently grappling with a five-game losing streak. It’s a tough spot for the Padres, and fans can’t help but feel for them.
Atlanta will send Reynaldo Lopez to the mound, adding to the Padres’ difficulties.
Lopez has been impressive this season, boasting a 1.71 ERA. Petco Park should suit his pitching style, allowing him to continue effectively inducing fly balls.
Conversely, the Padres will rely on Dylan Cease, a strikeout specialist who has encountered difficulties since mid-May, surrendering nine runs in his last two starts.
Can the Braves maintain their momentum?
Atlanta Braves
It’s hard to find fault with Lopez at the moment. While his 4.26 Expected ERA (xERA) might raise some concerns, he has consistently found ways to pitch out of trouble this season.
Lopez has maintained a remarkable 88.6% strand rate this season, compared to 81.3% last year—both significantly above the league average of 71.8%.
The key to his success has been his performance under pressure, striking out nearly 31% of batters with runners on base and allowing a solid 29.2% hard-hit rate in these situations.
While a strand rate as high as Lopez’s is typically unsustainable over an entire season and may suggest some regression, his performance with runners on base has been more than just luck.
Saturday in San Diego!#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/O2cJeHFfF7
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) July 13, 2024
His overall profile suggests he is an effective pitcher, instilling confidence in his abilities among his fans and team managers.
Even though he has reduced his walk rate from 12.2% to 9.4%, walking has been a concern for Lopez. He also tends to induce a lot of fly balls but has allowed only six home runs all season.
Lopez now faces a Padres offense that ranks last in wRC+ over the past week, driven by a dismal .096 Isolated Power (ISO) and a 4.6% walk rate.
This should give his fans and team managers reason to be optimistic about his upcoming performance.
San Diego Padres
The general public is starting to understand why I find it difficult to back Cease, as he remains an unreliable pitcher.
While his strikeouts continue to come in bunches—a part of his game that has never been in question—Cease’s control issues and his tendency to give up a significant amount of contact in the air are making him prone to the long ball.
The impact of his strikeouts, however, cannot be overstated. He has allowed 15 home runs this season, putting him among the league’s worst in this category.
Saturday starters ☀️ pic.twitter.com/Y2iuYzWSsJ
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) July 13, 2024
Pitching at the spacious Petco Park should theoretically mitigate these issues, yet Cease has allowed seven homers in nine home starts compared to eight in 10 road outings.
Despite his 3.69 ERA at home, which is better than his road performance, it’s challenging to say he’s in an ideal spot for Saturday’s game.
Atlanta managed to hit three home runs in Friday’s win in San Diego and has now hit 16 homers in its last eight games.
While the Braves might be slightly vulnerable to Cease’s strikeouts, their strikeout rate has started to trend down to the league average over the past week, and their power numbers remain strong.
Braves-Padres Best Bet
Cease is facing significant trouble on Saturday. His Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG) is over 10 points higher than the league average, and his 11.9% barrel rate ranks in the bottom 3% of all pitchers.
The Braves have posted an impressive .227 ISO over the past week and continue to hit home runs consistently.
With improving plate discipline, I fully expect them to challenge Cease again and make his summer even more difficult.
Goodnight, #BravesCountry! pic.twitter.com/pRgFkLjgLk
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) July 13, 2024
On the other hand, Lopez has been stranding many runners, and while some regression is possible, it should be minimal.
Given the Padres’ recent poor performance at the plate, which includes a critically low walk rate, Lopez may not even allow many runners to begin with.
Lopez should continue to effectively pitch to fly balls in the spacious Petco Park, while Cease is likely to give up some big hits to the hottest offense in the league right now.
There’s no clear indication that the Braves should be underdogs here, even on the road. I’d take the Braves on the moneyline in this one.
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