- What: NCAA Football Regular Season Game
- When: November 9, 2024
- Who: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers
- Time: 4:30 p.m. PST
- Where: Tiger Stadium (Baton Rouge, LA)
The latest chapter of the Alabama vs. LSU rivalry kicks off in Baton Rouge on Saturday night.
The winner of this SEC clash will take a significant step toward securing a spot in the College Football Playoff, while the team that falls short will probably need assistance, as both already have two losses.
A lively crowd is expected at Tiger Stadium, where LSU boasts a remarkable streak of 14 consecutive home victories.
Although the Crimson Tide hold an 8-2 advantage in their last ten encounters with the Tigers, they have struggled away from home this season with a 1-2 record.
LSU
Despite both teams having two losses, the Alabama Crimson Tide and LSU Tigers are still firmly in the playoff race and likely hold the keys to their own postseason fates, making this matchup crucial.
Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has displayed remarkable confidence this season, although he struggled in two challenging away games.
In the first instance, the Tigers relied heavily on their rushing attack to outlast South Carolina.
However, against Texas A&M, the Aggies effectively shut down the run game, leading to one of the toughest halves of Nussmeier’s career. He had three interceptions in the second half.
Can the Crimson Tide handle the #CFB25 Toughest Place to Play?@AlabamaFTBL ???? @LSUfootball pic.twitter.com/JBQeu7Iy5r
— EASPORTSCollege (@EASPORTSCollege) November 5, 2024
So, which iteration of the Tigers’ offense will take the field on Saturday?
If Nussmeier gets sufficient protection, he could exploit the weaknesses in Alabama’s secondary.
LSU’s secondary has defended three nearly elite passing offenses and fared reasonably well.
In the season opener, they gave up 380 yards to Miller Moss and USC, followed by 280 yards to quarterback Jaxson Dart and Ole Miss, and 240 yards to quarterback Taylen Green and Arkansas.
Overall, they sit at 97th nationally for Pass Success Rate allowed, yet they have done a good job of preventing big plays, ranking 45th in Pass Explosiveness allowed.
This will be crucial when facing Jalen Milroe’s exceptional deep-ball skills.
Alabama
It feels like Alabama’s defense has a critical misstep each week that allows opponents to score.
If they haven’t fixed this during their second bye week, you can count on Nussmeier to hit a deep pass for a significant touchdown. The Tigers will also likely focus on a more balanced strategy this week.
Alabama’s defense has the potential to improve, but the degree of that improvement remains uncertain.
The real question is whether the Crimson Tide offense can generate enough points to make this game a high-scoring showdown.
LSU has experienced its fair share of three-and-outs and halted drives, so the pressure may build up quickly if scoring is a must on every possession.
Game Week Central ➖ LSU https://t.co/cec0SUyBwn#RollTide pic.twitter.com/ng15SqQQ7o
— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) November 4, 2024
Notably, the Crimson Tide allows explosive plays, often resulting in significant yardage gains.
I’m anticipating an exciting matchup, but I have more confidence in Nussmeier executing a cleaner game than Milroe.
A significant reason why Alabama is favored in this matchup is Milroe, who has already scored 12 rushing touchdowns this season.
However, he has faced challenges in the running game lately, accumulating only 57 yards on 39 carries over the last three weeks against Vanderbilt Commodores, South Carolina Gamecocks, and Tennessee Volunteers after excelling against Georgia with 117 yards on 16 carries.
In Week 9, Milroe showed improvement with his legs, recording 11 carries for 50 yards and a touchdown in the team’s 34-0 victory over Mizzou.
Nonetheless, his performance since the Georgia game has not matched the success he achieved in the first four weeks, during which he totaled 273 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns.
Crimson Tide-Tigers Best Bet
I’m leaning towards LSU, particularly with the advantage of playing at night in Death Valley. That environment could provide a significant boost for the Tigers.
I have serious concerns regarding the Crimson Tide’s defense. While I respect their coaching staff and believe they will make some adjustments, I don’t see them as a top-tier unit.
I don’t feel comfortable laying the 2.5 points with Alabama on the road in this environment.
I’d bet LSU +2.5 points in this one at -110 odds at BetMGM.
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Tony Reyes is a sports betting analyst and reporter for Dice City Sports. You can follow him on X @TonyParlay.
