- What: MLB Regular Season Game
- When: Sunday, July 21
- Who: Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where: Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, CA)
After a couple of thrilling wins, the Dodgers will take center stage on Sunday Night Baseball to wrap up the weekend and aim for a sweep of the Red Sox at Dodger Stadium.
Following a shaky performance leading up to the All-Star break, L.A. has appeared revitalized in the second half of the season. Meanwhile, Boston has struggled to maintain the strong form it showed earlier in the month.
However, the momentum could shift with the struggling James Paxton facing the capable Kutter Crawford on the mound.
Can the Red Sox bounce back and improve to 4-0 on Sunday Night Baseball this year?
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have had a rocky month, posting a 6-8 record in July despite their two wins this weekend. They rank 12th in wRC+ for the month, but their performance over the past 10 games has dipped to 16th.
Their isolated power (ISO) is just .160, roughly 20 points below their season average. Additionally, strikeouts are up, and hits are scarce.
Los Angeles, known for its adaptability, has maintained a high walk rate despite the fact that the lack of balls in play is a concern. However, Saturday’s 7-6 win demonstrated their ability to adapt, with the Dodgers notching six extra-base hits, including two home runs.
After a tough night at the plate on Friday, the Dodgers managed to salvage the game with Freddie Freeman’s grand slam, a reminder of their past successes, offering some encouragement for the future.
Today’s Dodgers lineup vs. Red Sox: pic.twitter.com/Vo5vg4gBZ8
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) July 21, 2024
The Dodgers will likely need to score early and often on Sunday with James Paxton pitching. In his 17 starts this season, Paxton has a 4.38 ERA.
In June, he had a brief successful period when he limited walks and generated swings and misses. Still, his recent performances, particularly in his last few starts, have been less impressive, with his ERA increasing and his control issues becoming more pronounced.
Paxton has struggled with allowing baserunners, which puts additional pressure on the defense, pushing his walk rate up to 12%. His strikeout rate has fallen from 24.6% last season to just 15.6% this year, so the last one, he’s not getting as many batters out as he used to.
Despite showing promise with a 3.77 expected ERA in 2023, his struggles this season have been notable. He has become a contact-oriented pitcher who gives up a lot of fly balls and has issues with control — an unusual combination for this type of pitcher.
Boston Red Sox
On the mound for Boston is Crawford, a familiar face to Sunday Night Baseball. He has excelled in his two appearances on this stage this year, both against the Yankees, allowing just eight baserunners and three earned runs over 13 innings while striking out 13.
Crawford’s overall season has been outstanding. He boasts a 3.04 ERA, effectively managing fly balls, and has consistently kept his hard-hit rate below the league average.
He rarely issues walks and has held opponents to a .230 expected batting average (xBA), though his .411 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) is a minor blemish, reflective of his batted ball profile.
Last one in LA. pic.twitter.com/DVaxztU3zR
— Red Sox (@RedSox) July 21, 2024
Despite this, Crawford’s strong strikeout numbers have mitigated any potential issues. Aside from Saturday’s exception, he’ll face a Dodgers offense on Sunday that has recently been striking out at an alarming rate and struggling with power.
Offensively, Boston has rebounded after a brief slump in late June. They rank ninth in wRC+ this month, and while strikeouts remain a concern, they have compensated with a .194 ISO.
This team doesn’t walk often, but with the Dodgers starting pitcher’s hittable arsenal, they have an excellent chance to capitalize.
Red Sox-Dodgers Best Bet
I think the Red Sox should garner more respect here, even on the road, but the Dodgers’ solid start to the second half and consistent season performance have swayed oddsmakers in their favor.
Surprisingly, I disagree. The Dodgers haven’t displayed the same level of play we saw in bursts during the first half, and Paxton’s current form is likely to make this game challenging.
While Boston has struggled against lefties, ranking 20th in wRC+, Paxton’s issues with xSLG might mitigate that. The Red Sox have been slugging significantly for the past two months, with strikeouts being their main drawback.
CLUTCH O'NEILL‼️ pic.twitter.com/bdQJY357oe
— Red Sox (@RedSox) July 21, 2024
Paxton’s whiff rate in July was just 13.2%, his worst month. He’s in the 15th percentile for swings and misses.
This should benefit a Boston offense ranked sixth in swinging strike rate, which has managed to score despite contact issues.
On the other hand, Crawford has been stellar despite his .411 xSLG, and he faces a Dodgers team lacking the power they showcased earlier in the season.
I expect Crawford to deliver another strong performance on Sunday Night Baseball, maintaining Boston’s undefeated record in these games.
I’d take the Red Sox on the moneyline in this one.
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