- What: MLB Regular Season Game
- When: Monday, July 1
- Who: New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where: Nationals Park (Washington, DC)
The New York Mets and Washington Nationals will begin a four-game series on Monday night. Both NL East rivals aim to get above .500. New York (40-41) has been on a hot streak the past few weeks.
On the other hand, the Nationals (39-44) are four games behind in the wild card race and 15.5 games out of the NL East lead.
They have struggled recently, going 3-7 in their last 10 games and holding a season run differential of -15.
The Mets are slight favorites tonight at -115 due to their offensive advantage, while Washington has the edge in starting pitching.
The over/under for this game is set at 8 runs (-115/-105), with winds expected to blow in at around 10 mph.
New York Mets
David Peterson will start for the Mets tonight. Although he has posted a 3.67 ERA over five Major League starts this season, his underlying metrics tell a different story.
His expected ERA (xERA) is 6.12, and his FIP is 5.01, suggesting he has been outperforming his peripherals. Peterson’s career ERA stands at 4.45, indicating his current performance might be unsustainable.
Peterson has managed to strand 80.4% of his runners on base this season despite a low strikeout rate and a career strand rate of 73.2%.
Nimmo ties it AGAIN ???? pic.twitter.com/Dag32VTvCv
— New York Mets (@Mets) June 30, 2024
He ranks in the 13th percentile for both whiff rate and strikeout rate and the 19th percentile for walk rate, with poor contact quality metrics.
Specifically, he is in the 11th percentile for the hard-hit rate allowed, 38th for the barrel rate allowed, and 6th for average exit velocity.
His high ground ball rate (88th percentile) is his one strong suit, but if batters can elevate his pitches, they typically achieve good results.
The Mets have been on a hot streak due to their offense. This season, they rank 4th in wRC+ and 6th in wOBA.
The team walks at the 9th-highest rate in the league and strikes out at the 7th-lowest rate, putting many balls in play.
Statcast metrics support their success: 6th in hard-hit rate, 5th in barrel rate, and 8th in exit velocity.
New York has also excelled against left-handed pitching, ranking 2nd in wRC+, 4th in wOBA, 4th in ISO, 4th in SLG, and 6th in OBP against southpaws in 2024.
This should provide them with an advantage in tonight’s game.
Washington Nationals
Left-hander MacKenzie Gore, the youthful talent, will take the mound for the Nationals tonight.
In his second season with Washington, the 25-year-old has already shown promise with his impressive strikeout numbers and a career-best ERA of 3.60.
With over 16 starts and 85 innings, Gore has recorded a 3.79 xERA and 3.54 SIERA, closely aligned with his ERA.
He has also notched 99 strikeouts with a 26.6% strikeout rate (78th percentile). Gore ranks 9th out of 80 pitchers with 80+ innings pitched in Stuff+ and 24th in Pitching+.
84. pic.twitter.com/88S2KBliXz
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) July 1, 2024
His walk rate is slightly better than the league average, and he has excelled in contact metrics, allowing a 72nd-percentile hard-hit rate, 71st-percentile barrel rate, and 85th-percentile average exit velocity.
Offensively, Washington has faced significant challenges this season. They currently rank 24th in both wRC+ and wOBA.
The Nationals walk at a below-average rate and strike out at an above-average rate, placing them at 23rd in OBP and 27th in SLG.
The Nationals also make little quality contact, ranking 29th in hard-hit rate, 30th in barrel rate, and 29th in average exit velocity.
Unlike the Mets, the Nationals have struggled against left-handed pitching this season.
They rank just 28th in wRC+ and wOBA against lefties and have the second-highest ground ball rate in MLB, which is not a good matchup against David Peterson.
Mets-Nats Best Bet
Mackenzie Gore is considered the stronger pitcher in this game but will face a formidable opponent in the Mets. The Mets have a potent offense and perform well against left-handed pitchers while showing low strikeout rates.
Despite this, Gore is skilled enough to handle the challenge. However, the Mets’ offense will still pose a formidable threat.
Conversely, considering the Nationals’ weak offense, I hesitate to bet against Peterson. The Nationals have struggled overall, especially against left-handed pitchers.
Four-gamer in DC. #LGM pic.twitter.com/FAzPlC5b1C
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 1, 2024
They have low hard-hit and walk rates and hit many ground balls against left-handers. Despite Peterson’s weaknesses, this is a favorable matchup for him, and he could continue to benefit from good luck.
Although it’s challenging to go against the stronger pitcher in a close game, the matchup favors one side.
While I have confidence in Gore’s abilities, I believe the Mets’ offense (and the Nationals’ lack thereof) will be the deciding factor in tonight’s game.
Take the Mets on the moneyline in this one.
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