- What: CFP Game
- When: December 20, 2024
- Who: Indiana vs. Notre Dame
- Time: 5:00 p.m. PST
- Where: Notre Dame Stadium (South Bend, IN)
As we gear up for this epic showdown in South Bend, it’s hard not to get hyped about the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and their chances to cover the spread against the Indiana Hoosiers.
With both teams finishing the regular season at 11-1, this matchup is not just a battle of state pride but also a clash of contrasting styles and narratives. Let’s break down why I’m backing the Irish to cover the 6.5 points.
Indiana
On the flip side, Indiana has had a remarkable season under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti, but let’s not forget that they’ve struggled against ranked opponents.
Their lone loss came against Ohio State, where they were outmatched in a 38-15 defeat. While the Hoosiers boast the second-best scoring offense in the nation, averaging 40.3 points per game, they haven’t faced a defense of Notre Dame’s caliber this season.
The Irish rank third in scoring defense, allowing just 13.6 points per game, and they’ve held six of their last seven opponents to 14 points or fewer. This is a team that knows how to clamp down when it matters most.
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Moreover, Indiana’s success has been built on a favorable schedule, and their ability to dominate lesser opponents doesn’t necessarily translate to success against a top-tier team like Notre Dame.
The Hoosiers have been impressive, but they’ve also benefited from a weak strength of schedule, which raises questions about how they’ll perform under the bright lights of the College Football Playoff.
On the other hand, Indiana has been dominant, scoring 62-of-66 red-zone possessions. This could lead to a high-scoring affair, but I believe Notre Dame’s defense will rise to the occasion when it counts.
Notre Dame
First off, Notre Dame has been on a tear since their shocking loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2. They’ve rattled off 10 straight wins, showcasing a potent offense that ranks third in the nation, averaging 39.8 points per game.
This isn’t just a flash in the pan; the Irish have consistently put up big numbers against quality opponents, including ranked teams like Louisville and USC.
Their run-heavy approach, led by dual-threat quarterback Riley Leonard and standout running back Jeremiyah Love, has been a nightmare for defenses.
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???? https://t.co/dFv5CBEAdI#GoIrish pic.twitter.com/SjRZtCjZe5— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) December 20, 2024
Love, averaging 7.1 yards per carry, has been a key cog in this offensive machine, and with Leonard adding another dimension with his legs, the Hoosiers’ defense will have its hands full.
When it comes to the trenches, Notre Dame’s offensive line has been a force, averaging 6.3 yards per carry and allowing only 15 sacks all season.
This physicality will be crucial against an Indiana defense that has allowed just 2.5 yards per carry.
However, the Irish have the tools to exploit any weaknesses, especially with their ability to run play-action and hit chunk plays downfield. If they can establish the run early, it will open up opportunities for Leonard to make plays through the air.
Let’s also consider the red zone efficiency. Notre Dame has been strong in this area, but they’ve allowed 9-of-12 red-zone possessions to end in touchdowns over their last four games.
Hoosiers-Fighting Irish Best Bet
Weather could also play a role in this game, with projected winds of 13 MPH and gusts up to 24 MPH. While snow isn’t a concern, the wind could impact the passing game for both teams.
This might favor Notre Dame’s run-heavy strategy, allowing them to control the clock and dictate the pace of the game.
While Indiana has had a fairy-tale season, the Fighting Irish are battle-tested and ready to make a statement in the College Football Playoff.
With their explosive offense, stout defense, and home-field advantage, I’m confident that Notre Dame will cover the 6.5-point spread. This is a team that has faced adversity and come out stronger, and I expect them to show up big in this historic matchup
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Tony Reyes is a sports betting analyst and reporter for Dice City Sports. You can follow him on X @TonyParlay.
