- What: MLB Home Run Derby
- When: July 14, 2025
- Who: Cal Raleigh, Oneil Cruz, James Wood, Matt Olson, Byron Buxton, Brent Rooker, Junior Caminero, and Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Time: 5:00 p.m. PST
- Where: Truist Park (Atlanta, GA)
The Home Run Derby is a cherished tradition in baseball. It attracts fans by offering the chance to witness immense power showcased on a grand stage.
Recent changes to the tournament have also been embraced. The shift to a timed format has infused the event with urgency and excitement, enhancing its already thrilling nature.
This new structure has made stamina a crucial factor in the derby, benefiting younger participants significantly. This explains why, before Teoscar Hernandez claimed victory last year, no competitor over 26 had won since the rule changes were implemented.
Cal Raleigh (+325)
It’s clear the player with the most home runs is a favorite in a home run contest, but I’m not so sure the Big Dumper will win.
He’s a bit older for his first tournament, and historically, Raleigh has hit better as a righty. Truist Park also favors left-handed hitters.
Raleigh could have the option to bat lefty, especially since 22 of his 38 home runs have come from that side, but that’s mainly due to the abundance of right-handed pitchers.
In 2025, he’s hitting .229/.375/.543 as a lefty, compared to .333/.382/.853 as a righty. If he wants to perform well, he might need to stick to batting right-handed, which could affect his chances.
James Wood (+400)
James Wood is a strong contender for the Home Run Derby. The 22-year-old Nationals star has hit 24 home runs this season and ranks third in no-doubter percentage, indicating his home run potential across all MLB parks.
He’s second in expected home runs, trailing only Cal Raleigh, and leads with an average home run distance of 411 feet.
His impressive stats, which place him in the 97th percentile or higher for exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard-hit percentage, showcase his “easy power.”
With the Home Run Derby testing endurance, Wood’s stamina and experience under pressure as a top prospect make him a strong candidate to excel tonight.
Byron Buxton (+700)
Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton has showcased his tremendous power this season, hitting 21 home runs and sporting one of the smoothest swings in the game. His health, often a concern, has allowed him to excel on the field.
Buxton leads the league with an impressive 76.2% of his home runs being no-doubters, far ahead of Oneil Cruz at 68.8% and a league average of 47.3%. He also ranks third in expected home runs and second in average distance.
Third-base coach Tommy Watkins, who has known Buxton since 2013, might give him an edge in the Home Run Derby. With Buxton sitting at +700 odds and +350 to reach the final, he could be a strong pick for the event.
Matt Olson (+1000)
With the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby poised to take place at Truist Park in Atlanta, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Braves’ Matt Olson receives a warm boost from the home crowd and familiar ballpark.
The 10-year veteran is one of the eight participants in this year’s event. Olson has had a strong season at the plate, boasting a .263 batting average, 23 doubles, 17 home runs, and 61 RBI in 95 games.
Notably, he launched nine of his home runs at Truist Park in 2025, with 13 coming during night games. Let’s take a risk on a long shot and say Olson wins this.
Best Bet: Matt Olson to win Home Run Derby at +1000 odds
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Tony Reyes is a sports betting analyst and reporter for Dice City Sports. You can follow him on X @TonyParlay.
