- What: MLB Regular Season Game
- When: Wednesday, July 3
- Who: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)
The Cincinnati Reds and New York Yankees are set to play the second game of their three-game series tonight in the Bronx.
Despite high expectations for a pitching advantage, the New York Yankees could not secure a win last night. Luis Gil struggled on the mound, resulting in a 5-4 loss for the team.
Game won… #ATOBTTR!
FINAL: Reds 5, Yankees 4!
Celebrate at your neighborhood @Skyline_Chili! pic.twitter.com/GH2dwMFpWJ
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) July 3, 2024
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati has a clear starting pitching advantage with Abbott. He outperforms Rodón in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Cincinnati also boasts one of the league’s best bullpens, ranking in the top 12 in ERA, FIP, and xFIP.
While Cincinnati’s lineup doesn’t quite match New York’s, the Reds still rank in the league’s top half in runs scored per game.
This is tonight's lineup for the Cincinnati Reds who are taking on the New York Yankees in a game of baseball later on this evening.
Powered by @PNCBank pic.twitter.com/3pNHitHqlr
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) July 3, 2024
This is why we see a generous price on the Reds’ moneyline.
New York’s lineup is superior, but the gap needs to be wider to overlook the Reds’ stronger starting pitcher and bullpen in this matchup.
Abbott outshines Rodón in every key statistic and metric. Cincinnati’s bullpen also outperforms the Yankees in ERA, FIP, and xFIP.
New York Yankees
For the second consecutive season, Rodón has struggled early on. He has a 4.42 ERA and 1.26 WHIP through 17 starts.
Rodón’s underlying metrics are even more concerning, with a 4.62 xERA and rankings in the 16th percentile or lower for average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Following Rodón is a bullpen that seems primed for regression. Despite ranking 12th in ERA, New York’s relief staff ranks 20th in FIP and 22nd in xFIP.
Tune in to tonight’s Yankees-Reds game on @PrimeVideo ???? https://t.co/zND7xqEi90
Coverage begins at 6:30 pm ET. pic.twitter.com/NEeGBQZ15J
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) July 3, 2024
While the Yankees typically outperform the Reds at the plate, their recent performance against lefties shows a 114 wRC+, just slightly ahead of the Reds’ 110 wRC+.
The Yankees walk more often, but the Reds strike out less.
In relief, the Yankees have a 4.53 xFIP, while the Reds have drastically improved to a 3.69 xFIP since June 3.
New York’s bullpen has struggled with free passes, with a Walk Rate over 10% in the last month, whereas the Reds have a lower Walk Rate of 7.1% during the same period.
The Yankees are overvalued at home; Rodon has not pitched as well this season as he has in previous years.
Reds-Yankees Best Bet
I don’t understand why oddsmakers have favored the Yankees in this one. I’d bet the Reds to pull off the upset.
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