- What: MLB Regular Season Game
- When: Tuesday, July 2
- Who: Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where: T-Mobile Park (Seattle, WA)
After a brief five-game skid two weeks ago, the Baltimore Orioles have made an impressive rebound, winning four of their last five games.
This includes a notable three out of four against the World Series-defending Texas Rangers.
This recent success bodes well for their upcoming games.
Seattle Mariners
On Tuesday, they will kick off a three-game series in Seattle against the Mariners, who have experienced the opposite fortune lately.
The Seattle Mariners have faced a challenging period, losing eight of their last eleven games.
The urgency to reverse this slide is palpable, especially with the surging Astros now just three games behind in the division race.
To make matters worse, the Mariners will face Orioles’ pitcher Grayson Rodriguez in the series opener. Rodriguez has excelled in a limited sample size against Seattle.
George Kirby and Logan Gilbert in June were the first teammates in @MLB history (1901-c) to each post a sub-2.00 ERA with 30+ strikeouts and 3-or-fewer walks in the same calendar month.
Read more in today's game notes:
— Mariners PR (@MarinersPR) July 2, 2024
In the 29 plate appearances the Mariners have had against Rodriguez, they have hit just .125 and struck out 34.5% of the time, managing only three hits, none of which were for extra bases.
Moreover, the Mariners have struggled against right-handed pitchers this season, posting the seventh-lowest OPS in 2024 and striking out at a 28.4% rate.
Seattle will send George Kirby to the mound, who hasn’t fared well against the Orioles historically.
Baltimore Orioles
In 104 plate appearances against Kirby, Baltimore has had significant success, hitting .260 with a .530 slugging percentage.
They have also managed to strike out just 19.1% of the time—significantly lower than Kirby’s career strikeout rate of 23.7%.
This historical success should instill confidence in the Orioles’ ability to perform well in the upcoming game.
Late night baseball on deck. pic.twitter.com/ZfOMwpb5zb
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) July 2, 2024
On the other hand, the Orioles are the league’s second-best team against right-handers by OPS and rank third in wRC+.
A strong contender for the AL MVP, Gunnar Henderson leads the major leagues in FanGraphs’ WAR metric this season.
Playing the premium shortstop position, he has been a powerhouse at the plate, hitting .288 with 26 home runs and 58 RBIs for the elite Orioles offense.
Henderson has proven to be timely, dangerous, and incredibly efficient.
Orioles-Mariners Best Bet
When two first-place teams face off, it’s important to acknowledge the disparity in overall team quality.
The Orioles have an exceptional offense backed by a strong pitching rotation, while the Mariners have relied solely on their pitching staff to compensate for a lackluster offense this season.
With that in mind, the Mariners will have the better pitcher on the mound, George Kirby, who has elite command and has done a fantastic job of limiting hard contact.
Back at it with George on the bump. #TridentsUp pic.twitter.com/RcIrUkFrQL
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) July 2, 2024
The right-hander is in the 99th percentile in walk rate with a 72nd percentile hard-hit percentage.
Kirby has also pitched his best at home, posting a 2.34 ERA in seven home starts relative to a much more pedestrian 4.11 ERA on the road.
In a game that is lined like a coin flip, the pitching edge with Kirby at home is enough to side with the home team. Take the Mariners on the moneyline in this one.
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