The Las Vegas Raiders are locked in a dogfight for the number one pick.
Heading into Week 15, the Raiders were tied with the New York Giants with the league’s worst record at 2-11. The Giants have taken the lead after being trounced by the Baltimore Ravens 35-14 on Sunday, while the Raiders could pull back into a tie if they fall to the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night.
If the Giants and Raiders remain gridlocked at the top of the draft order, who goes on the clock first?
“According to the NFL draft rules, the draft order between teams who finish the season with the same record is decided by their strength of schedules,” explains Daniel Chavkin of The Sporting News.
“A team’s strength of schedule is determined by the combined record of its opponents, and the team with the lower strength of schedule earns the higher pick.”
While there are other tiebreaking scenarios involved, such as head-to-head record, best record in common games and best combined ranking of points scored and points allowed, it is rare for the NFL to go too far down the list without a decision being made.
What stands out about this from the Raiders’ perspective is that, even though they would currently be finishing below the Giants in the draft order, that would not be the case if they and the Giants both fail to win another game.
“If the season ended before Week 15, the Giants would own the No. 1 pick over the Raiders, as they have a lower strength of schedule — .527 compared to Las Vegas’ .574,” continues Chavkin. “In the four remaining weeks of the NFL season, though, the Raiders play teams with a combined .423.winning percentage, while the Giants play teams with a winning percentage of .574.”
For the sake of this exercise, this would be assuming that the Raiders lose to the Falcons to drop to 2-12. The Raiders’ final three games are against the Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Chargers; the Giants play the Falcons, Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles.
The combined record of the Raiders’ last three opponents is 16-26, while the Giants’ opponents would sit at 25-17. If both teams lose out and finish 2-15, the strength of schedule would swing in favor of the Raiders and secure them the top overall selection.
The final month of the season will be crucial for the Raiders, even if it is far from what they were hoping it would be.
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