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Will the Liberty or the Lynx win the WNBA title?

© Matt Krohn-Imagn Images
  • What: WNBA Finals Game
  • When: October 20, 2024
  • Who:  Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty
  • Time:  5:00 p.m. PST
  • Where: Barclays Center (Brooklyn, NY)

The New York Liberty hosts the Minnesota Lynx in game 5 of the WNBA Finals in Brooklyn, New York. The WNBA Finals will come to an exciting conclusion on Sunday night with a decisive Game 5 set to take place at Barclays Center.

This will be the eighth Game 5 in WNBA Finals history. Home teams have a 5-2 record in these matchups.

A win on Sunday would secure a record fifth title for the Minnesota Lynx, with head coach Cheryl Reeve, boasting a 2-1 record in Finals Game 5s.

On the other hand, the Liberty can clinch its first championship in franchise history with a win. However, it’s worth noting that the franchise has lost all five previous times it has played for the championship.

Minnesota Lynx

The Lynx have experience in winner-take-all games in the playoffs.

Minnesota had to face a decisive Game 5 in the WNBA semifinals, but that was a home game against the Connecticut Sun. However, this time it’s a road Game 5.

All five Minnesota starters scored at least 12 points, with guard Kayla McBride leading the way with 19 points. McBride has now scored 19 points in two consecutive games and is averaging 17.0 points per game in the finals.

The Minnesota Lynx are averaging 84.5 points on 47.1 percent shooting while allowing 82.6 points and 44.1 percent shooting. Forward Napheesa Collier is averaging 23.9 points and 9.1 rebounds, while McBride is averaging 14.8 points and 2 rebounds.

Collier has proven herself in crucial situations, having contributed to Cheryl Reeve and Team USA’s Olympic gold medal win at the Paris games. Now, she is preparing for another championship game.

Despite being out-rebounded (40-31) by the Liberty in Game 4 of the series, the Lynx secured a victory through efficient offensive play. In addition to fewer shots attempted, the Lynx maintained a higher field goal percentage at 44.6 compared to the Liberty’s 43.7 percent.

Additionally, Minnesota capitalized on New York’s turnovers, converting 16 turnovers into 19 points while only conceding 10 points off their 13 turnovers.

New York Liberty

In Game 4, the Liberty had multiple opportunities to take the lead in the final minute. Even point guard Sabrina Ionescu attempted a potential game-winning shot at the buzzer.

However, she and her teammate, forward Breanna Stewart, struggled shooting a combined 10-of-36 from the field and only scoring 21 points.

During the regular season, the Liberty achieved an impressive record at home, winning 16 out of 20 games.

New York demonstrated strong performance at home, outscoring visiting teams by an average of seven points. In their previous encounter with Minnesota at Brooklyn in Game 2, the Liberty secured a convincing 14-point victory.

In Game 4, every starting player on both teams scored 10 points or more. Center Jonquel Jones was the top scorer for the Liberty, contributing 21 points along with 8 rebounds, 4 three-pointers, and 2 blocked shots.

The Liberty are currently averaging 83.9 points while shooting 44.2 percent and allowing their opponents to score 78.9 points on 44.4 percent shooting.

Looking ahead, the Liberty are relying on Stewart to deliver a standout performance in the upcoming game on Sunday.

With two Finals MVPs under her belt, Stewart has the opportunity to clinch a third, a feat achieved by only one other player in WNBA history (Cynthia Cooper, with four). A stellar performance leading to victory in the upcoming game would secure her place in the record books.

Liberty-Lynx Best Bet

Based on the first four games, it’s clear that Game 5 will be fiercely contested and highly entertaining. Both teams are expected to put forth their best defensive performances, preventing either team from taking a significant lead.

New York has yet to secure a championship title, and even the most experienced players may feel pressure as they attempt to achieve what no Liberty team has accomplished.

While I’m expecting a close game and the Liberty to finally win their first title, their moneyline odds are -290. The best bet in this one will be on the total. 

In this final game, I expect both teams’ defenses to limit the opposing offenses. Points will be difficult to come by. The total is 157.5, and I’m confident in the under. 

Under 157.5 points at -110 odds is the best bet in this one. 

Will the Liberty defeat the Lynx to win their first title?

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Tony Reyes is a sports betting analyst and reporter for Dice City Sports. You can follow him on X @TonyParlay.

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