Las Vegas A's

Can Blake Snell and the Giants upset the Dodgers tonight?

by
Tony Reyes
July 22, 2024

What: MLB Regular Season Game
When: Monday, July 22
Who: San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where: Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, CA)

The National League West rivals will wrap up their season series with a four-game set starting Monday at Dodger Stadium.

According to FanGraphs, the Giants have a 3-6 record against the Dodgers in 2024 and have lost four of their last ten games, leaving them with just a 20% chance of making the playoffs.

One bright spot for the Giants is Blake Snell’s current form. The 2023 National League Cy Young Award winner has returned from the injured list with two dominant outings.

San Francisco Giants

He will face off against highly touted Dodgers prospect River Ryan, who earned his call-up with a 2.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in Triple-A this season.

Tensions are likely running high in the Giants clubhouse as a once-promising season appears to be slipping away. Despite a 48-52 record, the expanded wild-card format keeps San Francisco in the playoff hunt.

They responded to Bob Melvin’s outburst with a win on Sunday, showing some resilience.

A series at Dodger Stadium always provides extra motivation for San Francisco, and they might have a good chance to steal the opener with Blake Snell on the mound.

Snell has been stellar in his last two starts, not allowing an earned run and giving up just two hits over 12 innings against the Twins and Blue Jays.

500 Big League knocks for Yaz ???? pic.twitter.com/VTS3JM7YmF

— SFGiants (@SFGiants) July 21, 2024

He has posted a 2.07 FIP and struck out 8.25 batters per nine innings in those outings, with his fastball averaging 95.9 mph in his last start, the highest mark of the season.

Snell’s improved performance could help counter what seemed to be bad luck earlier in the season. He has a 3.58 xERA and a 3.98 xFIP overall this year.

The Giants’ bullpen has been solid over the past 30 days, with a seventh-ranked 3.58 xFIP, despite being forced to pitch the second-most innings in the league during that span (101 innings).

Offensively, the Giants have been tougher on left-handed pitchers than righties this season. They have a 17th-ranked wRC+ of 97 against righties in 2024 and a ninth-ranked wRC+ of 114 against lefties.

However, over the last 30 days, San Francisco has a 21st-ranked wRC+ of 94 against right-handed pitching and a strikeout rate of 23.7%.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Given the Dodgers’ rotation’s health issues, Ryan likely would have made his major-league debut earlier in the season if not for missing time himself in April and May.

In Triple-A, Ryan posted a Stuff+ rating of 122 and a Location+ rating of 106. His fastball tops out at 99 mph, averaging 98.5 with his four-seamer this season.

Tonight's #Dodgers lineup vs. Giants: pic.twitter.com/JduuJbGAsk

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) July 22, 2024

Since returning from shoulder tightness, he has topped out at five innings, so he’ll likely be on a short leash tonight.

The Dodgers’ bullpen has struggled lately, with a 4.42 ERA and 4.55 xFIP over the past 30 days.

At the plate, Los Angeles has performed well against left-handed pitching over the past month, with an 11th-ranked 125 wRC+ and a .769 OPS. This matchup seems favorable for targeting the under.

Snell’s recent performance resembles his former self, providing confidence that the Dodgers’ hot offense might underperform.

Giants-Dodgers Best Bet

The Giants’ bullpen struggled with ERA before the All-Star break, but they were heavily overworked and might now be refreshed with solid underlying results.

For the Dodgers, Ryan has the potential to be an effective big-league starter right away. The Giants’ lineup remains below-average against right-handers despite the return of a few key players.

A total of 8.5 runs seems high for this matchup. I would bet Under 8.5 runs in this one.