Las Vegas A's

Who will win the 2024 Home Run Derby?

by
Tony Reyes
July 15, 2024

What: MLB Home Run Derby
When: Monday, July 15
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Where: Globe Life Field (Arlington, TX)

The 2024 Home Run Derby is set to light up Globe Life Field on Monday night.

As one of the marquee events on the MLB calendar, let’s dive into the action and enjoy making some exciting predictions.

Eight current and former All-Star sluggers will battle for the title of this year’s ultimate home run hitter in the 2024 Home Run Derby.

The competition starts with all eight hitters in the opening round, with the top four advancing to the semifinals for head-to-head matchups.

In the bonus round, each player will keep swinging until he makes three outs, with an additional out granted if a player hits a home run of 425 feet or longer.

Pete Alonso

The betting favorite, and the best bet to win the derby, is to go with Pete Alonso.

He takes the competition incredibly seriously, and despite not having a standout year overall, he is still hitting for decent power.

Alonso’s ISO (Isolated Power) rate for the year is .210, which, according to FanGraphs, falls into the “great” category, just below the “excellent” threshold of 25% and above.

Pete Alonso talks about why he keeps doing the Home Run Derby:

"I keep doing it because as a kid, I dreamt of doing it. I loved watching it as a kid. I keep doing it for my childhood self." pic.twitter.com/beH3f7fwLL

— SNY (@SNYtv) July 15, 2024

His barrel rate is 11.6%, also categorized as “great,” with “excellent” being 15% and above.

While it would be ideal for him to be in the “excellent” range for both metrics, he still boasts impressive numbers that bode well for the derby.

Another crucial stat for the Home Run Derby is bat speed, and Alonso has the second-fastest bat speed among all participants.

Bat speed, a crucial factor for hitting home runs, measures the velocity of the bat as the player swings.

Alonso’s second-fastest bat speed among all participants, combined with his power and barrel rate, forms a solid foundation for success in this format.

Alonso’s previous experience in the Home Run Derby is a significant advantage.

He knows what to expect and has shown he can succeed in this event, making him a strong contender.

Bobby Witt Jr.

Bobby Witt Jr. enters the 2024 Home Run Derby after a stellar first half of the season, hitting .323 with a .927 OPS and 16 home runs. While his homer total might be on the lower end among the participants, don’t be deceived.

Witt ranks high in key power-hitting metrics: third in bat speed, average exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage, and second in barrel rate and expected slugging percentage.

The Kansas City Royals’ star shortstop also leads the field in no-doubt home run percentage, indicating the proportion of his home runs that would clear the fences in all 30 MLB ballparks.

The @Royals' Bobby Witt Jr. is the only player in MLB history to record at least 60 home runs, 100 stolen bases & 25 triples within his first 400 career games. pic.twitter.com/2rMQjR8FSC

— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) July 9, 2024

However, succeeding in the Home Run Derby requires hitting ability and a pitcher who can consistently serve up ideal pitches.

We’ve seen both ends of this spectrum: Dave Jauss has been lauded for perfectly setting up Pete Alonso, while Adolis Garcia struggled with Tony Beasley’s less-than-ideal throws.

Witt will be hitting off his brother-in-law and former big league reliever James Russell, a left-hander who now works at a prospect academy and has experience pitching to Witt in the offseason.

While Witt has only three home runs against left-handed pitching this season due to limited plate appearances (67), his OPS against lefties is a solid .899, and he actually hits more home runs per plate appearance against lefties than righties.

Adding to his advantage, Witt grew up near Globe Life Field. Betting on the hometown hero seems like a winning strategy.

Gunnar Henderson

Gunnar Henderson’s performance this season has been nothing short of exceptional. The Baltimore shortstop’s batting average of .286, a slugging percentage of .586, and an OPS of .957 in the first half are truly remarkable.

He blasted 28 home runs in just 95 games, matching his total from last season, which he achieved in 150 games.

Henderson’s advanced metrics, which are statistical measures of his performance, are among the best in baseball.

He ranks in the 99th percentile for hard-hit rate, indicating that he consistently makes solid contact with the ball. The 89th percentile for barrel rate measures the rate at which he hits the ball with an ideal combination of exit velocity and launch angle.

Gunnar Henderson’s season long home run prop was 27.5

He just cashed the over before the All Star break pic.twitter.com/b3RklBNbnt

— Barstool Gambling (@stoolgambling) July 14, 2024

Most of Henderson’s home runs have been to the pull side, a particularly advantageous strategy given the unique dimensions of Globe Life Field compared to Camden Yards.

This insight into the impact of different ballparks on his performance is certainly intriguing.

While Camden Yards measures 318 feet to the right field pole and has a towering 21-foot-high wall, Globe Life Field is slightly longer at 326 feet but features a much shorter eight-foot-high wall.

This shorter wall should play to Henderson’s advantage.