- What: NFL Wild Card Playoff Game
- When: January 11, 2025
- Who: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Time: 5:00 p.m. PST
- Where: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore, MD)
As the Pittsburgh Steelers prepare to face the Baltimore Ravens in the Wild-Card Round of the 2025 NFL playoffs, the betting line has the Ravens as 9-point favorites.
While many might see this as a clear path for Baltimore, the reality is that this game is shaping up to be much closer than the odds suggest.
In fact, I’m leaning toward the Steelers to cover that spread, and here’s why.
Pittsburgh
The Steelers are no slouches, either. Despite their recent four-game losing streak, they’ve faced tough opponents and have shown flashes of resilience. The key here is that the Steelers have been in playoff mode for weeks and know how to grind out tough games.
When it comes to playoff football, the atmosphere is electric, and the stakes are high.
The Steelers have a history of rising to the occasion in the postseason, and while they may not be the favorites, they have the experience and grit to keep this game competitive.
GAMEDAY‼️ GAMEDAY‼️ GAMEDAY‼️#HereWeGo | @OurFordStore pic.twitter.com/DRaDUhf1e3
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) January 11, 2025
The Steelers have a knack for keeping these games tight, and with Mike Tomlin at the helm, you can bet he’ll have his squad ready to battle.
The Ravens’ defense has been solid, ranking 12th in total defense and 6th in run defense. But let’s not forget that the Steelers have a formidable defense of their own, led by T.J. Watt, who racked up 11.5 sacks this season.
The Steelers’ defense is capable of making big plays, and they’ll need to step up to keep this game within reach. Tomlin’s teams are known for their ability to perform under pressure, and I expect nothing less in this matchup.
Baltimore
First off, let’s talk about the history between these two teams. The Ravens may have the upper hand in recent matchups, but when it comes to the spread, they’ve struggled against the Steelers.
Baltimore is just 3-7 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games against Pittsburgh. This trend is crucial, especially in a playoff setting where every point matters.
Primed for the playoffs ???? pic.twitter.com/cT2BspRWaL
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) January 11, 2025
Another factor to consider is the absence of Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers, who has been ruled out due to a knee injury. Flowers has been a key target for Jackson, and his absence could disrupt the Ravens’ offensive rhythm.
This opens the door for the Steelers to focus more on stopping the run and pressuring Jackson, which could lead to mistakes and turnovers.
Now, let’s dive into the current form of both teams. The Ravens are riding high after winning their last four games, including a decisive 35-10 victory over the Cleveland Browns.
Lamar Jackson has been on fire, finishing the season with impressive stats: 4,172 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, and a QBR of 77.5
Steelers-Ravens Best Bet
While the Ravens may be favored, the Steelers are more than capable of keeping this game within a touchdown.
The 9-point spread at -110 odds on BetMGM is too generous, and I believe this game will be much closer to a 6-7 point margin.
So, if you’re looking for a smart bet this Wild Card weekend, consider taking the Steelers to cover the spread. It’s a play that aligns with the data, the history, and the current dynamics of both teams.
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Tony Reyes is a sports betting analyst and reporter for Dice City Sports. You can follow him on X @TonyParlay.
