- What: MLB Regular Season Game
- When: Saturday, July 27
- Who: Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where: Angel Stadium (Anaheim, CA)
The Athletics’ impressive offensive performance has carried into their AL West series against the Angels. Oakland has scored 11 runs in the first two games against Los Angeles and is averaging 6.25 runs per game in July.
Mitch Spence (4.67 ERA in 88 2/3 innings) will start on Saturday, aiming for his second consecutive win over the Angels.
Despite Spence’s recent success, the Athletics are considered underdogs, with the Angels favored at -125 on the moneyline.
Spence faces a challenging matchup against All-Star left-hander Tyler Anderson, who boasts a 2.91 ERA in 123 2/3 innings and has been in excellent form, posting a 2.29 ERA in his three July starts.
Check out my Angels vs. Athletics betting preview below for a deeper analysis.
Oakland Athletics
The Athletics might not be the first team that comes to mind when thinking about MLB’s offensive powerhouses, but they’ve been exactly that lately. Over the past month, their 147 wRC+ (where 100 is the league average) ranks first by a significant margin.
There are rumors that the Athletics aren’t particularly eager to trade Rooker ahead of the trade deadline. This seems counterintuitive, as it might be the peak of Rooker’s trade value.
The A's reportedly are "reluctant" to move two of their hottest hitters before the trade deadlinehttps://t.co/y9vWgvLMJF
— A's on NBCS (@NBCSAthletics) July 27, 2024
This could be a negotiating tactic, but if the 29-year-old stays with Oakland, it would be good news for anyone betting on the A’s to exceed their historically low preseason win total.
In the last month, Oakland has a wRC+ of 188 against left-handed pitching, leading the league by a large margin. They’ve struck out just 17.7% of the time during this span, boasting a league-leading 0.73 BB/K ratio and a third-ranked hard-hit rate of 37.8%.
Mitch Spence might be a better pitcher than his 4.67 ERA suggests. He has an xERA of 3.86 and an xFIP of 4.03.
Pitch metrics are also relatively favorable for Spence, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 100 and a Location+ rating of 101, indicating he might perform better than his ERA shows.
Los Angeles Angels
While Mitch Spence is a promising candidate to improve upon his current 4.67 ERA, the opposite appears true for Tyler Anderson, who currently has a 2.93 ERA. Anderson’s underlying metrics suggest regression, with an xERA of 4.32 and an xFIP of 4.89.
His success has been bolstered by stranding 83.1% of baserunners and limiting home runs (1.02 HR/9; 8.8 HR/FB%). If these rates regress to his career averages, Anderson may look more like an average starter moving forward.
these throwback threads ????#RepTheHalo pic.twitter.com/KEIwdc0ewS
— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) July 27, 2024
Anderson’s Stuff+ and Location+ metrics have improved compared to last season but remain below average at 95 and 99, respectively.
The Angels’ lineup has struggled against right-handed pitching this season, ranking 26th with a wRC+ of 89.
This trend hasn’t improved significantly recently, as they hold a wRC+ of 93 over the last 30 days. Additionally, their hard-hit rate against righties ranks 27th at 30.9% over the past month.
A’s-Angels Best Bet
It’s hard to overlook the Athletics’ red-hot lineup in this matchup, especially as an underdog, given Anderson’s questionable edge over Spence.
Oakland has been the league’s best team against left-handed pitchers for over a month, presenting a tough challenge for Anderson.
Going for the series win. pic.twitter.com/AQY3LDiS6G
— Oakland A's (@Athletics) July 27, 2024
While a few big games have boosted the Athletics’ elite recent offensive numbers, they aren’t necessarily the league’s best team against lefties.
However, it’s easy to argue that Oakland’s offensive potential currently surpasses that of the Angels. Therefore, the Athletics appear to be a strong bet as an underdog.
Consider backing Oakland on the moneyline as they continue challenging the Angels’ pitching staff on Saturday night.
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