What seemed improbable only a couple months ago is almost a reality now for the Las Vegas Aces.
After securing their third Finals appearance in four years with a 107-98 overtime victory over the Indiana Fever on Tuesday, the Aces must now overcome the Phoenix Mercury to secure their third championship in that timespan.
The series between the Aces and Mercury will be historic, as it is the first time that the WNBA Finals will be held in a best-of-seven series format. The first two games will take place on Friday and Sunday at Michelob ULTRA Arena, before kicking over to PHX Arena on Oct. 8 and 10. Should additional games be needed, the series will alternate arenas, with Game Seven being held in Las Vegas if it reaches that point.
Here is what fans should expect from the Mercury going into the series, as well as what the Aces must do if they want to cement themselves as the WNBA’s latest dynasty.
War of attrition
This Finals series is the classic case of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object.
The Aces have been able to outscore everyone in their path to the Finals, leading the WNBA in postseason scoring (87 points per game) and field goal percentage (48.5%). Meanwhile, the Mercury have the best defensive rating in the postseason so far at 92.2, limiting opponents to a postseason-low 75.9 points per game, including 32 points in the paint. Something is going to have to give in this battle between a high-powered offense and a lockdown defense.
The old adage has always been that defense wins championships, and that has held true so far with the Mercury knocking out both of last year’s finalists in the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx. However, the Aces know what it takes to reach the pinnacle of the sport, so expect them to throw in a few wrinkles to try and get the jump on their opponents.
Matching depth
The battle between the big threes is going to take center stage in this series. The Aces have the championship-winning trio of A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray; the Mercury have the quick-developing chemistry of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper. Whichever trio is able to get to their game first in the series is going to give their team the advantage, and that is to be expected.
However, in the event the stars are deadlocked, a moment of brilliance from the depth could be crucial to getting an edge.
This would tend to favor the Mercury, who had the highest scoring bench heading into the postseason and have received excellent performances from DeWanna Bonner and Sami Whitcomb at different points in the playoffs. The Aces, however, will not be outgunned so easily. NaLyssa Smith has served as an excellent complement to Wilson in the frontcourt since arriving in a trade with the Dallas Wings on June 30, while Jewell Loyd and Dana Evans have served as spark plugs off the bench with the ability to generate instant offense.
Both teams have a vast array of weapons heading into this series, so everyone is going to have to be accounted for if either side wants to claim victory.
Finish the fight
As much as the Aces want to write a storybook ending for a season with so much adversity, the way they have finished both of their playoff series so far is not going to cut it.
Against the Seattle Storm and the Fever, the Aces have needed to go down to the wire to advance. The Storm were on the verge of an upset in the first round, but a putback shot from Young and a couple missed shots on the other end helped the Aces survive with 12 seconds remaining. On Tuesday, the Fever overcame a nine-point deficit in the fourth quarter to force overtime, despite losing MVP finalist Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston fouling herself out with 27 seconds left in regulation.
That is not going to fly against a Mercury team that has been the underdog in both of their playoff series so far, but has shown an uncanny ability to feast on inconsistencies and poor shooting performances. If the Aces get the chance to finish the series off early, they cannot afford to make the same mistake as the Liberty and Lynx and give the Mercury any breathing room.
WATCH: A’ja Wilson addresses media concerning Collier’s exit interview
