- What: NCAA Men’s Sweet 16 Game
- When: March 28, 2025
- Who: Ole Miss vs. Michigan State
- Time: 4:09 p.m. PST
- Where: State Farm Arena (Atlanta, GA)
The No. 6 seed Ole Miss Rebels (24-11) will face the No. 2 seed Michigan State Spartans (29-6) this Friday in the NCAA Tournament South Region. A spot in the Elite Eight is on the line.
The matchup at State Farm Arena in Atlanta will tip off at 7:09 p.m. ET.
In their NCAA Tournament opener, the Rebels secured a 71-64 victory against the No. 11 seed North Carolina Tar Heels, finishing as a 1.5-point underdog.
They followed up with a strong performance against the No. 3 seed Iowa State Cyclones, winning 91-78 while covering as a 5-point underdog on March 23.
Ole Miss has covered the spread in three consecutive games while playing as an underdog and holds a record of 18-16-1 against the spread (ATS) this season.
According to Kenpom, the Rebels have shown their strength on both ends of the court, ranking 23rd in offensive efficiency and 21st defensively.
The Spartans have faced only double-digit seeds so far, defeating the No. 15 seed Bryant Bulldogs 87-62 on March 21 and the No. 10 seed New Mexico Lobos 71-63 two days later. They managed to cover the spread as a 17-point and 6.5-point favorite, respectively.
They’ve been impressive lately, covering the spread in 10 out of their last 11 games and having an overall record of 24-10-1 against the spread. Michigan State excels on the defensive end, currently ranked fourth in defensive efficiency.
When playing as the favorite, the Spartans are on a strong run, recording a 7-1 record against the spread in their last 8 games in this position and standing at 19-9 ATS for the season.
They are well-positioned to cover again with a comparable offense and a significantly stronger defense.
On the other hand, the Rebels have also shown some promise, but they finished the regular season on a rough note, losing 4 of their last 6 games, including a 10-point defeat at home to the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
They have a 4-6 record against the spread in their last 10 contests. Additionally, Ole Miss faced an Iowa State team missing its second-best scorer, so they will encounter a tougher matchup this Friday evening.
Considering the red-hot form of the Spartans, I recommend backing Michigan State to cover the 3.5-point spread .
Ole Miss-Michigan State Best Bet
Best Bet: Michigan State -3.5 Points at -110 odds
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Tony Reyes is a sports betting analyst and reporter for Dice City Sports. You can follow him on X @TonyParlay.
