- What: NBA Regular Season Game
- When: January 17, 2025
- Who: OKC Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks
- Time: 5:30 p.m. PST
- Where: American Airlines Center (Dallas, TX)
The Oklahoma City Thunder are riding high after a dominant 134-114 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers, but this matchup against the Dallas Mavericks could be a classic letdown spot.
Coming off such an emotional win, the Thunder may overlook a struggling Mavs team that is desperate for a turnaround.
With the spread set at 6.5 points in favor of OKC, there’s a compelling case to be made for taking Dallas to cover.
OKC
First, let’s discuss the Thunder’s recent performance. At 34-6, they’ve been one of the most formidable teams in the league, boasting a four-game winning streak.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been on fire, scoring 40 points in just three quarters against the Cavs, and he’s averaging 32 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 5.7 assists this month.
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???? @sportsanimal pic.twitter.com/JW7J7uFdx7— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) January 17, 2025
However, the emotional toll of such a significant win can’t be ignored. Teams often struggle to maintain their intensity after a big victory, especially when facing a team that appears to be down and out.
The Thunder have been great against the spread this season, but they’re not invincible. They’ve covered in 12 of their last 18 meetings with the Mavericks, including 7 of 9 on the road in Dallas.
This historical trend suggests that the Mavs can keep it close, especially given the current circumstances.
The Thunder’s recent success could lead to complacency, and the Mavericks will be looking to exploit that.
Dallas
On the other hand, the Mavericks are limping into this game with a 22-19 record and have lost three straight.
Luka Doncic is still sidelined with a calf strain, and while Kyrie Irving’s status is questionable due to a back injury, the Mavs have shown resilience in tough situations.
They’ve been competitive even in losses, like their recent close call against the New Orleans Pelicans, where they lost by just three points.
GAME DAY.
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⌚ 7:30PM CT
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????️ https://t.co/2IzaOO5ewW pic.twitter.com/UKvRfgKVYz— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) January 17, 2025
Daniel Gafford has stepped up, putting up 27 points and 12 rebounds in that game, and if Irving plays, he could provide the spark the Mavericks need.
Moreover, the Mavericks have been solid defensively, particularly in perimeter defense, holding opponents to just 33% shooting from three-point range over their last three games.
However, they’ve struggled to defend the paint, ranking 6th worst in opponent points per game in the paint this season.
This could be a double-edged sword against a Thunder team that thrives on inside scoring, but if the Mavs can tighten up their interior defense, they could keep the game competitive.
Thunder-Mavericks Best Bet
The Thunder’s depth will be tested as they’ll be without center Isaiah Hartenstein for at least a week due to a calf injury.
While they’ve managed to win without him, his absence could be felt against a Mavericks team that, despite its struggles, has the potential to capitalize on any lapses in the Thunder’s game.
While the Thunder are the favorites and have been playing at an elite level, the potential for a letdown after a big win, combined with the Mavericks’ need to turn things around, makes Dallas +6.5 a compelling pick.
The Mavs may not win outright, but they have the tools to keep it close, especially if Irving suits up. So, don’t sleep on the Mavericks; they could surprise everyone and make this a nail-biter.
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Tony Reyes is a sports betting analyst and reporter for Dice City Sports. You can follow him on X @TonyParlay.
