- What: 2025 Capital One Orange Bowl
- When: January 9, 2025
- Who: Notre Dame vs. Penn State
- Time: 4:30 p.m. PST
- Where: Orange Bowl Stadium (Miami, FL)
As we gear up for the highly anticipated Orange Bowl showdown between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, it’s time to break down why I’m rolling with Penn State to snag the win.
Sure, Notre Dame has been on a tear, but let’s not overlook the talent and strategy that the Nittany Lions bring to the table.
Notre Dame
However, Penn State’s ability to generate pressure gives it the edge. They average over 2.5 sacks per game, and with Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard being a dual-threat quarterback, that pressure could lead to mistakes.
Leonard has been effective on the ground, but Penn State will have a significant advantage if it can contain him and force him into passing situations.
Miami, this is where we hustle ☘️ #GoIrish | Game 15 pic.twitter.com/clWFgZ7xYu
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) January 8, 2025
When it comes to scoring, this is where things get interesting. Notre Dame has a tendency to go for it on fourth down rather than settle for field goals, which can be a double-edged sword.
If they get into the red zone, they’re likely to try and punch it in for a touchdown instead of taking the points.
This aggressive approach could backfire against a Penn State defense that excels in the red zone, allowing the fewest touchdowns in the country. If Notre Dame can’t convert those opportunities into six points, it could be a long night for them.
Penn State
First off, let’s talk skill positions. Penn State’s roster is loaded with playmakers, and Tyler Warren is a name that should be on everyone’s radar.
This guy is a matchup nightmare for defenses, and with Notre Dame’s secondary dealing with injuries, he could be the X-factor that swings the game in Penn State’s favor.
The Nittany Lions have a solid receiving corps, and with Drew Allar under center, they can stretch the field and create explosive plays. Allar has shown he can deliver when it counts, throwing for three touchdowns in the quarterfinals against Boise State.
Happy Valley to the 305.#WeAre | ????️@ChopYoungBull pic.twitter.com/bLpzsk8MGt
— Penn State Football (@PennStateFball) January 9, 2025
Now, let’s not sleep on the line play. Both teams have solid offensive and defensive lines, but I’d say they’re pretty even in that department.
Now, I know what you’re thinking: James Franklin has a history of faltering in big games. That’s a valid concern, but let’s look at the facts. Penn State has been dominant in the playoffs so far, and they’ve shown they can handle pressure.
They’ve cruised through their first two playoff games, and with a two-day rest advantage, they’re coming into this game fresh.
Plus, the Nittany Lions have covered the spread in five of their last seven games, which bodes well for their confidence heading into this matchup
Fighting Irish-Nittany Lions Best Bet
The betting odds are also in favor of Penn State, with the moneyline sitting at -105 on BetMGM. That’s a solid line for a team that has the talent and strategy to win this game.
With the majority of the betting public leaning towards Notre Dame, this could be a classic case of the public underestimating Penn State’s capabilities.
While Notre Dame has had a fantastic season, the combination of Penn State’s skill position talent, defensive prowess, and strategic advantages in the red zone make them the team to beat in this Orange Bowl matchup.
So, if you’re looking to place a bet, the Penn State moneyline is where I’d put my chips. Let’s see if the Nittany Lions can prove the doubters wrong and secure a spot in the National Championship game.
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Tony Reyes is a sports betting analyst and reporter for Dice City Sports. You can follow him on X @TonyParlay.
