Just because the Las Vegas Raiders did not hop on the coaching carousel this offseason does not mean they will not feel its effects.
Head coach Antonio Pierce remains in 2025, but he does so with one of the hottest seats in the NFL. The Raiders will expect to see improvements in both the standings and scoresheets, and they will be much less kind to Pierce if neither shows up.
Bearing that in mind, the Raiders will be watching the coaching carousel closely. By doing so, they will see which candidates remain available for 2026, possibly influencing what the Raiders do this time next year.
With the coaching carousel always having a sense of unpredictability, going through the possibilities of how the NFL landscape changes is a fun exercise. As such, this will explore some unexpected outcomes that would shake up the league for next season.
So how will this coaching cycle unfold?
Ben Johnson stays in Detroit
Ben Johnson is the reverse Eric Bieniemy at this stage. Whereas the former Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator got spurned by teams after interviewing, Johnson himself has turned down teams with job openings.
Last season was no exception, with the Detroit Lions offensive coordinator turning down head coaching gigs with the Seattle Seahawks and Washington Commanders.
In fairness, Detroit has given him no reason to rush out the door. Johnson has one of the best-run organizations backing him, a coaching staff full of offensive coordinator candidates and a roster either on rookie contracts or already locked down with extensions.
The two jobs Johnson will likely have the most interest in this time are the Jacksonville Jaguars and Chicago Bears, both of whom have promising quarterbacks and an array of talent at their disposal.
The issue is that neither team fired their general manager, and Johnson will likely want to bring someone from the Lions to work alongside him. Candidates like assistant GM Ray Agnew and director of scouting advancement Mike Martin would appeal to Johnson, as it would ensure Detroit’s process follows him at least somewhat to his new destination.
If neither team wants to acquiesce to Johnson’s demands, what stops him from staying in Detroit again for a better opportunity next season? Options like the Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins would appeal to Johnson, and the Raiders could have a chance as well with the proper infrastructure in place.
Johnson is the top head coach candidate on the board this season, making him that much harder to get. It proved true in 2024, and the stage is set for a similar result in 2025.
Joe Brady stays in Buffalo
For teams Johnson says no to, Brady stands out as the next top offensive mind available.
An ill-fated stint as Carolina Panthers offensive coordinator notwithstanding, Brady has enjoyed success at every level of football.
Serving as an offensive assistant under Sean Payton with the New Orleans Saints, Brady joined up with the LSU Tigers in 2019 as passing game coordinator. Brady oversaw the best passing attack in college football history, culminating in then-quarterback Joe Burrow winning the Heisman Trophy and skyrocketing to the first overall pick in the 2020 Draft.
After the Panthers, Brady joined the Buffalo Bills as quarterbacks coach before moving to interim offensive coordinator after Ken Dorsey was fired midway through the 2023 season. He impressed enough to earn the full-time job, and the Bills have been rewarded for that decision.
This season, quarterback Josh Allen is a legitimate MVP candidate, while running back James Cook and wide receiver Khalil Shakir are enjoying breakout years.
Brady could easily enter into the head-coaching ranks, but his relative inexperience and youth (he would be the youngest head coach in the NFL at 35 years old) could give teams pause.
While working with quarterback Caleb Williams in Chicago or a return to New Orleans would interest Brady, he could have eyes on the Bengals job, where he would reunite with Burrow and receiver Ja’Marr Chase.
With so many options on the table, expecting Brady to stand pat like Johnson is not a far-fetched idea.
Mike McCarthy coaches in 2025, just not in Dallas
Mike McCarthy finds himself in a strange predicament this offseason.
The head coach saw his contract with the Dallas Cowboys expire this season, and he has an exclusive negotiating period with the Cowboys until Jan. 14.
However, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has made no concerted effort to get McCarthy and his staff back under contract, despite publicly saying he would like to retain his head coach.
Other teams are starting to force the issue, as the Bears have asked the Cowboys for permission to conduct an interview with McCarthy on Monday. The Cowboys, as of Tuesday, have not responded to the request.
Also working in McCarthy’s favor is that prominent players like Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott have vouched to bring McCarthy back, despite the team’s struggles this season.
However, the decision is ultimately Jones’ and his alone, and the fact that he has been quiet about McCarthy’s status since the end of the season speaks volumes.
The fact that the Bears are willing to give him an interview indicate that McCarthy still has qualities about him that appeal to NFL teams, but one to look out for if he hits the open market is the New York Jets.
McCarthy would have connections with quarterback Aaron Rodgers and wide receiver Davante Adams from their shared time in Green Bay. Even if Rodgers is unlikely to return, McCarthy has shown he is willing to handle meddling ownership and the pressures of working in a massive media market like New York.
If the Cowboys will not bring McCarthy back, his stint on the unemployment line will definitely be a short one.
A GM gets moved for a coach
If a team wants to bring in a top coaching candidate, it is looking more like they will have to build around the coach.
Johnson is a fine example, as he has plenty of coordinator and GM options that he would like to bring with him. Other top candidates like Brady and Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores may also want some concessions due to their high demand.
The best example, however, is former Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel, who seems to be preparing for a return to the head coaching ranks in 2025.
Vrabel will receive interviews from every coaching vacancy, giving him complete control over where he ultimately chooses to go. What will separate the opportunities, however, will be how willing they are to adjust themselves to Vrabel’s liking.
Vrabel has been a longtime supporter of Ryan Cowden, and it is likely he would choose Cowden as his general manager if given the choice. While Cowden serves as executive advisor to the GM for the New York Giants, Cowden worked with the Titans alongside Vrabel, who supported him for general manager when the Titans opened the position in 2022.
Others with links to Vrabel, such as Giants defensive coordinator Shane Bowen and former Denver Broncos and Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels, have also been mentioned as candidates for his staff.
A team that would be willing to make such demands work is the New England Patriots, who fired first-year head coach Jerod Mayo on Sunday and look to be preparing themselves to make a push for Vrabel’s services.
Longtime NFL executive Eliot Wolf is still serving as general manager, but the Patriots could easily shift him to another role to make room for Cowden. Vrabel would also have power to make sweeping changes to the staff, ensuring his choices are put in the positions he wants.
If a general manager is moved or even fired, news of a major head coach coming along will not be too far behind.
Experience over youth
After years of the NFL favoring first-time coaches in the hopes of finding the next Sean McVay, the scene seems to have shifted this time around.
Among the new head coaches this season, three of the best of the group had previous head-coaching experience. Dan Quinn and Jim Harbaugh guided the Commanders and Los Angeles Chargers, respectively, to the postseason, while Raheem Morris was a game away from bringing the Atlanta Falcons to the playoffs.
This has caught the attention of NFL front offices, and several former head coaches are making the rounds in this cycle.
Vrabel is a lock to get one of the head coaching spots for 2025. McCarthy will land on his feet quickly if Dallas does not renew his contract. Another Super Bowl-winning head coach in Pete Carroll has made himself available for a return to the sidelines.
Flores headlines a list of former head coaches turned coordinators who could make the move back up in 2025. Washington Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury will receive interviews, as will Denver Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and even Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy.
Even a first-time candidate like Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken would be valued for his experience similar to Vic Fangio when he was named Broncos head coach in 2019.
After years of watching first-time head coaches flounder at the helm, it appears the NFL is looking at a new direction. This year will be a reflection of such a philosophical shift.
