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Can LSU upset Texas A&M at Kyle Field?

© SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network / USA TODAY NETWORK
  • What: NCAA Football Game
  • When: October 26, 2024
  • Who:  LSU Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies
  • Time:  4:30 p.m. PST
  • Where: Kyle Field (College Station, TX)

The No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies host the No. 8 LSU Tigers this Saturday night with first place in the SEC at stake.

The Aggies have a perfect 4-0 record in conference play and is riding a six-game winning streak after their season-opening loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. 

Meanwhile, LSU, is also on a six-game winning streak following their defeat to the USC Trojans to open the season, sitting just behind with a 3-0 conference record.

Since Texas A&M joined the SEC in 2012, LSU has emerged victorious in nine of their 12 encounters. However, the last six matchups have been evenly divided, with the home team claiming victory in each instance.

LSU

In SEC matchups, scoring and total offense statistics show little difference, but the Tigers and Aggies have different approaches to advancing the ball.

Texas A&M focuses on the ground game, averaging over 200 rushing yards per game. While, LSU leans significantly on quarterback Garrett Nussmeier’s passing abilities.

Nussmeier is tied for seventh in the nation with 18 touchdown passes this season.

The critical factor will be whether LSU’s offensive line can keep providing Nussmeier with enough protection to locate his receivers. Nussmeier has only been sacked twice this season.

While LSU may not be the powerhouse they were in previous years, their ability to handle pressure and face adversity has significantly improved over the past month.

LSU’s thrilling comeback win against the Ole Miss Rebels highlighted the team’s maturation. The defense has improved in crucial moments, while the offense has demonstrated its ability to execute critical drives and convert challenging fourth downs.

The resilience of this team, coupled with the effective player development by head coach Brian Kelly, make a strong case for picking LSU.

Texas A&M

The Texas A&M defense has performed well against conference opponents. They have limited them to an average of 17.8 points and 325.3 yards per game.

However, they have shown some vulnerability in the passing game. They’ve allowed an average of 227 yards passing per game this season.

The Aggies knack for breaking through into the backfield could pose a significant challenge for LSU’s offense. This could potentially lead to mistakes from Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, such as rushed throws and sacks.

By effectively halting the run and generating negative plays, Texas A&M can push the Tigers into more predictable passing scenarios. This enables its defense to focus more on its pass rush and coverage.

Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman has missed the last three games due to injury. This could be the reason for the underwhelming development of the passing game.

Offensively, Texas A&M has a dominant rushing attack, scoring eight rushing touchdowns in their past two games alone, and can potentially exploit the LSU run defense.

Running back Le’Veon Moss has shined, accumulating 674 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He is anticipated to play well against an LSU defense that yields an average of 153.7 rushing yards per game to SEC competition.

Tigers-Aggies Best Bet

This should be a fantastic matchup and a great test for both teams. The total of 54.5 points seems high, I’m expecting these defenses to make a statement in this one.

I’d bet Under 54.5 points at -110 odds at BetMGM as the best bet in this one.

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Tony Reyes is a sports betting analyst and reporter for Dice City Sports. You can follow him on X @TonyParlay.

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