- What: MLB Divisional Series Playoff Game
- When: Wednesday, October 9th
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
- Time: 2:08 p.m. PST
- Where: Citi Field (Queens, NY)
The New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies in the fourth National League Divisional Series game this afternoon. The Mets lead the series and can eliminate the Phillies and advance to the National League Championship Series for the first time in nine years.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies ranked third in the National League in runs scored this season, and with their season hanging in the balance, all eyes are on them for Wednesday’s game. Their top hitters, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper, have all hit home runs in this series.
However, it’s been Castellanos who’s stood out as a major offensive force, boasting a .385 batting average, a 1.000 OPS, and three RBIs over the first three games. The offense and lineup must show up if they want to force a decisive game five back in Philadelphia.
The Phillies will be handing the ball to Ranger Suarez with their season on the line today. Suarez, a left-handed pitcher, has posted a 2.30 ERA in three starts against the Mets this season. In games started by Suarez this season, the Phillies have a 2-1 record against the Mets.
Let's roll#RedOctober pic.twitter.com/B0UsLiTmSJ
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) October 9, 2024
Notably, he has not allowed more than two runs in any of his starts against the Mets this season and has kept his opponents to two runs or fewer in his last three starts at Citi Field.
Additionally, Suarez has established himself as a dominant postseason pitcher, boasting a remarkable 1.62 ERA over nine appearances, including seven starts, throughout his career.
The Phillies bullpen has been a disaster in this series. They were one of the best bullpens in baseball this season, so I’m expecting them to recover today.
New York Mets
The Mets have been performing exceptionally well at Citi Field, particularly against the Phillies. In late September, they secured three out of four victories, which significantly contributed to their quest to qualify for the 2024 MLB playoffs.
Following their recent win, the Mets have an impressive 4-1 record in their last five games at Citi Field against the Phillies and hold a decisive 9-5 record at home against the Phillies since 2023.
Jose Quintana is set to start for the Mets. He showcased his exceptional form after delivering six scoreless innings against the Brewers in the NL Wild Card Round.
Here's the lineup for Game 4. #LGM pic.twitter.com/7sL13fxwGt
— x – New York Mets (@Mets) October 9, 2024
He has only conceded runs in two of his last seven starts, maintaining an outstanding 0.72 ERA over that period, establishing himself as a formidable force on the pitcher’s mound.
The Mets lineup has been on fire in this series. They’ve scored at least six runs in each game of this series. Pete Alonso has had three home runs over his last four games, and Mark Vientos has been hitting .417 with two home runs and seven RBIs in the playoffs.
Phillies-Mets Best Bet
This Mets team has been incredible the past month, they continue to come through in late-game situations and the team has a resiliency most didn’t expect to see.
That being said, the Phillies on the other hand have been one of the best teams in the league this year, it doesn’t seem likely their slump continues.
The total in this one is 7 runs again and that feels low for both of these offenses. The Mets have been a run-scoring machine and the Phillies offense can score runs in bunches.
I was going back and forth between the total and a side in this one. The total has even sides on both the over and under of 7 runs, while the Phillies are underdogs in this one.
The best bet in this one is the Phillies moneyline at plus-money odds, I’m seeing +105 at some sportsbooks and that value is too much to turn down.
Can the Phillies continue their October magic against the Mets?
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Tony Reyes is a sports betting analyst and reporter for Dice City Sports. You can follow him on X @TonyParlay.
