- What: MLB Regular Season Game
- When: Wednesday, July 24
- Who: New York Mets vs. New York Yankees
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where: Yankee Stadium (The Bronx, NY)
The final Subway Series game of 2024 between the New York Mets and the New York Yankees will be played in the Bronx on Wednesday night at Yankee Stadium.
The starting pitchers will be Gerrit Cole for the Yankees and Sean Manaea for the Mets. The Mets secured a 3-2 victory on Tuesday night and are currently 3-0 against the Yankees for the season.
The Yankees, with a record of 60-43, are 1 1/2 games behind in the AL East but have a 3 1/2-game cushion in the AL wild-card race.
The pressure is on for them to perform better in the remainder of the season to secure a postseason spot in the competitive American League.
On the other hand, the Mets, with a record of 52-48, are significantly behind the Phillies in the NL East, practically eliminating them from the division race.
However, they are currently holding onto a half-game lead over the Padres for the final NL wild-card spot, with several other teams also vying for the position.
With Gerrit Cole pitching, the Yankees are heavily favored tonight with -165 on the moneyline. The total is set at 8.5 runs, with Sean Manaea pitching for the Mets.
New York Mets
Manaea has posted a 3.73 ERA, a 4.43 xERA, and a 4.28 SIERA in 101 1/3 innings during his first season with the Mets.
He is not known for racking up strikeouts, as indicated by his whiff rate in the 48th percentile and strikeout rate in the 54th percentile, placing him around the league average in both categories.
In terms of his walk rate, Manaea ranks in the 29th percentile, which suggests that he has issued a few too many free passes.
Subway Series finale. #LGM pic.twitter.com/ognQj3e8es
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 24, 2024
Additionally, he has allowed a fair amount of hard contact, ranking in the 30th percentile in hard-hit rate, 41st percentile in barrel rate, and 40th percentile in average exit velocity. He also has a low ground-ball rate, sitting in just the 16th percentile.
On the offensive side, the Mets have performed well in recent months.
They are currently ranked fourth in wRC+, seventh in wOBA, seventh in SLG, sixth in ISO, and eighth in OBP, closely trailing the Yankees in most of these categories.
Moreover, the Mets’ walk and strikeout rates are slightly better than the league average.
They also excel in hard-hit rate (seventh), barrel rate (fourth), and exit velocity (ninth), leading to the 11th-best BABIP in the league.
New York Yankees
Gerrit Cole, the reigning Cy Young Award winner, has made six starts since returning from the IL in June. In 29 1/3 innings, he has posted a 4.60 ERA, with a 4.02 xERA, 3.72 SIERA, and 34 strikeouts.
It appears that Cole has nearly regained his form at this stage.
His fastball velocity, which initially averaged 95 mph upon his return to the Major League, has increased to over 96 mph in his last three starts.
Last season, he averaged 96.8 mph, so he is getting close to his expected level.
While Cole faced challenges at the start of the season, he has recently delivered two solid starts, allowing just one run in each and striking out 15 batters over 12 innings.
Wednesday Night Matchup. #RepBX pic.twitter.com/pl50nFiBSg
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) July 24, 2024
It seems reasonable to project Cole as a full-strength starter going forward as he increases his workload and goes deeper into games.
On offense, the Yankees have been one of the top-performing teams in baseball this season, ranking third in wRC+ and wOBA.
However, their performance has dipped recently, with rankings of 10th and 12th in these categories, respectively, in the month of July.
It is no secret that the Yankees have struggled against left-handed pitchers this season.
They rank 14th in wRC+ and 17th in wOBA against left-handers, dropping from third in overall ISO to 20th when facing southpaws.
Mets-Yankees Best Bet
Both offenses in this matchup have strengths but also face challenges. Although Manaea is not an outstanding pitcher, the Yankees struggle more against left-handed pitchers.
I believe the Mets starter could have a solid performance, considering the Yankees have yet to resolve this issue.
On the other hand, despite the Mets’ strong offense, I have confidence in Cole and anticipate another impressive start from him.
Both teams are struggling at the plate right now, and my best bet in this one is Under 8.5 runs.
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