- What: MLB Regular Season Game
- When: Wednesday, June 19
- Who: Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
- Start: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Yankee Stadium (The Bronx, NY)
On Wednesday, MLB fans will witness a showdown between two American League heavyweights as the Baltimore Orioles (47-25) take on the New York Yankees (51-24) at Yankee Stadium.
Baltimore Orioles
In Game 1 of this three-game series on Tuesday, the Yankees secured a win but faced an injury scare with Aaron Judge, who was hit by a pitch on his left hand.
The impact was significant, causing immediate pain and swelling. He was immediately taken out of the game and underwent X-rays and a CT scan to assess the extent of the injury.
Fortunately, X-rays and a CT scan were negative. This victory extended New York’s lead in the AL East to 2.5 games over Baltimore, giving them the best record in baseball so far.
Aaron Judge says x-rays and CT scan have come back negative, per @BrendanKutyNJ pic.twitter.com/qEnNWo0Knz
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) June 19, 2024
Trailing closely behind the Yankees, the Orioles hold a seven-game lead for the first AL Wild Card spot. Having won seven of their last ten games, Baltimore aims to maintain their momentum in pursuit of the division title.
This momentum could significantly impact their performance in the game, potentially leading to a more aggressive and confident playstyle.
However, Wednesday’s game will be challenging as Yankees ace Gerrit Cole makes his season debut after being sidelined by nerve inflammation in his right elbow.
New York Yankees
The Yankees are favored at -145 with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Gerrit Cole, a former Cy Young Award winner, is set for his highly anticipated return.
Cole underwent a comprehensive rehabilitation process after experiencing nerve irritation in his elbow this spring. He completed three rehab starts and gradually increased his pitch count and intensity.
In his last outing, he reached 70 pitches over 4.1 innings and struck out 10 batters, showing promising signs of recovery.
Last season, Cole recorded a 2.63 ERA and 5.2 WAR over 209 innings, winning the AL Cy Young Award. Among 44 qualified pitchers last season, he ranked fourth in both Stuff+ and Pitching+. His 87th percentile walk rate demonstrated his ability to limit free passes.
Gerrit Cole's energy returns to Yankee Stadium tonight pic.twitter.com/81QWFoZEL0
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) June 19, 2024
The Yankees’ offense has been the best in the American League this season, ranking second in the majors in both wRC+ and wOBA and in the top five in nearly every offensive category.
The health of Aaron Judge, a key player for the Yankees, remains uncertain. His X-rays and CT scans were negative after leaving Tuesday’s game due to a pitch-related injury. The question of whether he will play on Wednesday adds an element of suspense to the upcoming game.
The Yankees have struggled against left-handed pitchers in 2024, ranking 10th in wRC+ and 14th in wOBA against them. They face Orioles left-hander Cade Povich, who is making his third MLB appearance.
Orioles left-hander Cade Povich, making his third MLB appearance, is a player to watch. Ranked fifth in Baltimore’s prospects, Povich was a third-round pick by the Twins in 2021.
While his Stuff+ is 85, among the worst in the league, his impressive strikeout record in AAA, averaging more than a strikeout per inning, hints at his potential.
Baltimore’s offense is nearly as strong as New York’s, ranking third in wRC+ and wOBA this season. They lead MLB in SLG and ISO, indicating their power-hitting capabilities.
However, they are more free-swinging, ranking 28th in walk rate and 15th in OBP, which could be a potential weakness the Yankees could exploit.
The Orioles boast impressive batted-ball metrics, with the best hard-hit rate, second-best barrel rate, and average exit velocity in the league.
These metrics indicate their ability to make solid contact with the ball, potentially leading to more hits and runs. Their .398 xwOBACON is the highest in the league, just ahead of the Yankees, further highlighting their offensive prowess.
Orioles-Yankees Best Bet
While Gerrit Cole may be effective in his debut, his pitch limit will likely prevent him from going deep into the game. This could have significant implications for the Yankees’ pitching strategy, potentially leading to more bullpen usage.
Hot tater pic.twitter.com/kEJZr2XlIK
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) June 19, 2024
He faces a formidable Baltimore offense that could challenge his return, making it a crucial factor to consider in the game.
Although Cole is typically reliable when fully healthy, he is still ramping up, making it risky to back him in his first start of the year.
With one of the best offenses in the American League, the Orioles may take advantage of this opportunity. I’ll take the Orioles on the moneyline to pull off the upset.
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