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Will the Celtics win their 18th title?

© Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
  • What: NBA Finals Game 5
  • When: Monday, June 17
  • Who: Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics
  • Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: TD Garden (Boston)

Game 5 of the NBA Finals tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET on Monday in Boston. The Dallas Mavericks staved off elimination with a dominant performance in Game 4, preventing a Boston Celtics sweep.

However, Boston will have another opportunity to secure their first championship since 2008 with a victory at home. The Celtics are favored by 6.5 points, and the over/under for the game is set at 209.5.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics have reported that Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) may be available to play under specific conditions in Game 5.

Porzingis is a difficult matchup, particularly for Dallas, so his potential absence is significant.

The Celtics’ offense appeared to struggle in Game 4. Boston’s passing game was strong in the first three games, making 280.7 passes per game with 26 assists and 45 potential assists per game.

However, in the last game, Boston’s passing game faltered, making 290 passes but only managing 18 assists and 36 potential assists. This dip in performance is a clear area for improvement.

Jrue Holiday (five), Jayson Tatum (three), and Jaylen Brown (two) combined for 10 turnovers in Game 4. Their performance seemed somewhat sloppy, and their +/- for the game was historically poor.

It seemed like Brown and Tatum were both trying to dominate Game 4, which led them away from the successful processes of the previous three games.

Looking ahead to Game 5, Boston should aim to exploit the one-man zone with precise passing to the perimeter.

Even though the Mavericks were strong with their closeouts, this approach could test the defense in a new way. Derrick White missed several wide-open 3s, and Horford was not quick enough to release his shots consistently.

They have a strong track record of not losing consecutive games in the postseason, and this trend has been consistent since when they secured the No. 1 seed for the NBA Playoffs.

Dallas Mavericks

In Game 4, the Mavericks were in complete control and had no trouble against the Celtics, potentially indicating a significant shift in the series’ momentum.

The Mavericks’ dominance in the paint was evident as they outscored the Celtics 60-26.

With Kristaps Porzingis still dealing with an injury, the Celtics might struggle to reverse this trend, especially if Porzingis is not at full strength.

Additionally, the Mavericks have effectively limited Jayson Tatum’s impact, even when he scored 31 points in Game 3.

Tatum’s shooting percentages of 42.3% from the field and 30.8% from beyond the arc suggest that he’s been inefficient.

If Tatum continues to struggle, the Mavericks will have a good chance of remaining competitive.

Moreover, their first 100-point performance in the series will boost the Mavericks’ confidence as they head into the next game.

Mavs-Celts Best Bet

Based on the absence of Porzingis, I believe the Mavericks will perform much better in this game compared to the first two losses in Boston.

Porzingis, the 7’1 center, made a significant impact in the series’ initial games with his shot-blocking abilities.

Despite Boston’s strong home record, I think the Mavericks have a solid chance of winning Game 5 on the road, especially considering two of Boston’s rare home losses occurred in the postseason.

 

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Tony Reyes is a sports betting analyst and reporter for Dice City Sports. You can follow him on X @TonyParlay.

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