- What: NFL Regular Season Game
- When: December 9, 2024
- Who: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Time: 5:20 p.m. PST
- Where: Cowboys Stadium (Arlington, TX)
As the Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) prepare to face off against the Dallas Cowboys (5-7) on Monday Night Football, the betting line has the Bengals favored by 5.5 points.
While the Bengals have shown flashes of brilliance, particularly with Joe Burrow throwing 30 touchdowns this season, I believe oddsmakers have miscalculated the spread.
This matchup seems destined to be a nail-biter, likely decided by a field goal. Therefore, the Cowboys are a solid pick to cover the spread.
The Cowboys are coming off a 27-20 victory over the New York Giants, and they’ve won two straight games under quarterback Cooper Rush.
Rush has been effective, throwing for 247 yards and two touchdowns against the Commanders and maintaining a clean game against the Giants.
With Dak Prescott sidelined, Rush has stepped up, and the Cowboys’ offense has found its rhythm, averaging over 30 points in their last two outings.
This newfound offensive momentum is crucial as they face a Bengals defense that has struggled all season, allowing an average of 28.3 points per game, which is tied for the second-worst mark in the league.
On the other hand, the Bengals are reeling from a three-game losing streak, including a high-scoring 44-38 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
While Burrow has been stellar, the Bengals’ defense has been a liability, allowing 128 rushing yards per game and consistently failing to stop opposing offenses.
The Cowboys will likely exploit this weakness, especially with their run game, which could open up opportunities for Rush to connect with his receivers downfield.
Statistically, the Bengals have gone over the total in nine of their twelve games this season, but this game is shaping up to be more competitive than the spread suggests.
The Cowboys have the least effective home-field advantage in football, but they’ve shown they can compete at home, especially against teams that struggle defensively.
The Bengals have only faced five teams that are not currently in the playoff picture, and they’ve won by seven or more points in those matchups. However, the Cowboys are not just any team; they are fighting for their playoff lives and have shown resilience in recent weeks.
Moreover, the Cowboys’ defense has been getting healthier, which could make a significant difference in this matchup. With Micah Parsons back in the lineup, the Cowboys rank No. 1 in pressure rate, which could disrupt Burrow’s rhythm.
The Bengals have allowed 34 or more points in three straight games, but the Cowboys defense is not the same as the high-powered offenses they faced previously. Rush’s quick release and the Cowboys’ ability to run the ball effectively will keep the game close.
While I believe the Bengals are likely to win this game, 5.5 points is far too many to lay on the road.
The Cowboys have shown they can compete, and with the game likely coming down to the wire, I’m taking the Cowboys to cover the spread at -110 odds at BetMGM.
This one feels like a field goal game at best, and the Cowboys are more than capable of keeping it close.
Bengals-Cowboys Best Bet
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Tony Reyes is a sports betting analyst and reporter for Dice City Sports. You can follow him on X @TonyParlay.
