If past history is any example, the Maxx Crosby trade likely will not end well for the Raiders. Las Vegas has flipped stars before, and the return has too often landed as a promise instead of a payoff.
The Ravens are acquiring Crosby for first-round picks in 2026 and 2027, a deal that becomes official after the new league year opens.
The familiar sales pitch, the familiar fear
Two first-rounders sound like a reset button, and they can be. However, Raiders fans have learned to treat “draft capital” like a scratch-off ticket, not a guarantee.
That distrust is earned. The franchise has cashed out elite players across two cities and several regimes, and the picks that came back rarely turned into cornerstones that changed Sundays.
Mack brought picks, and the picks brought a mixed bag
The Khalil Mack trade remains the reference point because the compensation looked clean and massive. It also came with the kind of pressure only premium picks carry.
The Raiders did get a real hit in Josh Jacobs, who gave them 73 games and a stretch as the engine of the offense. Yet they also used prime draft real estate on Damon Arnette, a first-round corner who lasted 13 games in Silver and Black, and Bryan Edwards, a third-round receiver who never grew into the reliable complement they needed. Those misses are why fans do not celebrate “two firsts” until they see names and results.
Cooper turned into a first, then into a shrug
The Amari Cooper deal was straightforward: one young Pro Bowl receiver, one first-round pick. That kind of trade can work if the pick becomes a long-term starter at a premium spot.
Instead, it produced Johnathan Abram, who played 36 games for the Raiders but never became the stabilizing presence a first-round defensive back is supposed to become. Cooper kept producing elsewhere, while the Raiders kept searching for traction and continuity.
The way-back machine still stings for a reason
The Randy Moss trade predates Las Vegas, but it lives in Raiders memory because it captures the franchise’s worst-case outcome. Oakland took a fourth-round pick and watched Moss explode in New England with Tom Brady.
The Patriots acquired Moss from the Raiders for a fourth-round pick in 2007. That same year, Moss turned the league into a highlight reel, and the Raiders got John Bowie, who played five games in silver and black. Short of his mother, most Raiders fans probably will not recognize the name John Bowie, which tells you plenty about how that return aged.
Adams turned into Geno, then into another hole
Davante Adams did not produce a rookie for the Raiders, and that is the point. The return pick got rerouted into the Geno Smith deal, and the Raiders moved on after one season. In the end, one of the franchise’s biggest trades became a temporary quarterback patch.
Then the season happened. Las Vegas is set to release Smith at the start of the new league year, and the Adams trade tree now reads like a short-term patch that did not hold. For a fan base already skeptical of selling stars, that sequence sharpened the cynicism.
The report card Raiders fans keep in their heads
If you reduce the four blockbuster trades to what Las Vegas actually ended up holding, it is hard not to understand the anger around Crosby. Raiders fans have lived the gap between “look at the picks” and “look at the player.”
Here’s the blunt report card, weighted by draft slot, expectation and how long each return actually lasted in silver and black:
-
Josh Jacobs: A
A legitimate hit and the one clear win. He gave the Raiders 73 games, Pro Bowl production and a stretch where the offense ran through him. -
Johnathan Abram: D+
He played 36 games, but a first-round defensive back needs to change the secondary. The impact never matched the cost. -
Bryan Edwards: D
A third-rounder does not carry first-round expectations, but he still never became the steady No. 2 receiver they hoped for. He logged 28 games as a Raider and faded. -
Geno Smith: C-
The Adams trade tree turned into a one-season quarterback bridge. He started 15 games, then the Raiders moved on, which says plenty. Now he is a Twitter-beef with Wendy’s.https://twitter.com/GenoSmith3/status/2030048062685512188
-
John Bowie: D-
A fourth-round pick is a lottery ticket, so the bar is lower. Still, five games is five games. -
Damon Arnette: F-
A first-round corner has to become a long-term starter, period. He played 13 games for the Raiders, and the miss still hangs over that draft.
Josh Jacobs is the one clear win. Everything else ranges from “didn’t match the slot” to “barely existed.” That is why fans treat these deals like a loss until proven otherwise, even when the compensation looks enormous in a headline.
The pot at the end of the rainbow is Kubiak’s “silent tape”
This is also why the Crosby trade has a chance to land differently, even if history argues against it. The people making the next decisions are new, and their message is built for a fan base allergic to sales pitches.
Klint Kubiak’s introduction in Henderson centered on “silent tape,” the idea that trust comes from what shows up on film, not what sounds good at a podium. Pair that with John Spytek running the roster plan and Tom Brady now in the ownership orbit Crosby thanked during his farewell, and the Raiders can at least argue the process has changed.
Why the 2026 draft is the real verdict
The Raiders will not win or lose the Crosby trade this month. They will win it if those first-rounders become pillars, and they will lose it if those picks become another chapter in the same old story.
History says the safer bet is disappointment. Still, Kubiak, Spytek and Brady have a clear opening to prove Raiders fans wrong, and it starts with getting the 2026 board right.
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Dice City Sports editor Mark Hebert covers the Vegas Golden Knights, Las Vegas Raiders, Athletics, and UNLV baseball and softball. He has 24 years of journalism experience, is also a senior reporter at Exhibit City News, and previously covered the Dallas Stars and Texas Rangers. Follow him on X or connect on LinkedIn.
